生育支持政策对育龄群体生育意愿的影响——基于2021年成都市专项调查的实证分析  

The Impact of Fertility Support Policy on Fertility Desire of the ReproductiveAge Population:An Empirical Analysis Based on 2021 Chengdu Specialized Survey

作　　者：王卓[1] 李梦鹤 Wang Zhuo;Li Menghe(School of Public Administration,Sichuan University;School of International Studies,China Western Frontier Security and Development Strategy Synergetic Innovation Center,Sichuan University)

机构地区：[1]四川大学公共管理学院 [2]四川大学国际关系学院、中国西部边疆安全与发展协同创新中心

出　　处：《人口研究》2024年第4期3-18,共16页Population Research

摘　　要：在少子化背景下,为深入探究生育支持政策对生育意愿的影响及其具体作用机制,以生育行为为分界,将生育支持政策细分为孕育支持政策和养育支持政策,并基于2021年成都市“人口生育政策配套措施效果评价”专项调查数据开展实证分析。研究发现,孕育支持政策与生育意愿之间存在显著的正向关系,养育支持政策与生育意愿之间的关系则未得到实证支持;进一步探究生育成本观和生育偏好观在孕育支持政策对生育意愿影响中的差异化作用机制,可将育龄群体分为“敢生不愿生”型、“不敢生不愿生”型、“敢生愿生”型和“愿生不敢生”型4类,适用于不同类型育龄群体的政策指向不同。因此,构建长效的生育支持政策体系需要科学识别目标群体,精准施策,以提高政策效能,有效提升生育水平。To explore the impact of fertility support policy on fertility desire and its mechanisms,this study divides fertility support policy into pregnancy support policy and parenting support policy based on fertility behavior,and conductes empirical analysis using the special survey data of“Effectiveness evaluation of fertility policy and supporting measures”in Chengdu in 2021.The results show that there is a significant positive relationship between pregnancy support policy and fertility desire,while the relationship between parenting support policy and fertility intention is not supported by empirical evidence.In further exploring of the differential mechanisms of fertility cost perceptions and fertility preferences in the impact of pregnancy support policies on fertility desire,the childbearing age groups can be classified into four categories:“daring but not willing to give birth”,“not willing and not daring to give birth”,“daring and willing to give birth”and“willing but not daring to give birth”.Different policy directions are applicable to different types of childbearing age groups under different mechanisms.Therefore,constructing a longterm fertility support policy system requires the scientific identification of target groups and precise policies to improve policy effectiveness and to effectively enhance fertility levels.

关 键 词：生育支持政策 生育意愿 生育成本观 生育偏好观 政策工具 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]