基于网络媒体的通胀信号冲击会影响居民福利吗——来自微博文本数据的证据  

Does the Shock of Inflation Signals Based on Network Media Affect Residents' Welfare: Evidence from Weibo's Textual Data

作　　者：宁玉玲 杨光[1] NING Yu-ling;YANG Guang(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300110,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300110

出　　处：《广东财经大学学报》2024年第4期13-32,共20页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(18CJL013)。

摘　　要：随着现代信息技术的发展,网络媒体给人们的生活带来了日益重要的影响。基于网络媒体的报道文本构建通胀信号冲击数据,实证研究通胀信号冲击对居民福利的影响机制及影响程度,结果表明:通胀信号冲击数量增多可提高居民价格预期的准确性,进而对居民福利产生正面影响;通胀报道的具体内容和方向会影响福利变动,通胀语调的加强会造成福利损失;媒体信号对居民福利的影响存在渠道异质性和个体异质性,即不同媒体类型的通胀信号会导致居民福利的不同变化,媒体信号对不同的人群也会产生不同的影响;报道数量增加会通过影响居民消费决策和收入来改善福利水平;报道方向上的语调增强则会导致居民预期通胀率上涨、储蓄增加、福利水平下降。因而社会各界应重视媒体信息发布的重要作用和传导方式,以理性合理的方式引导物价报道产生积极可控的效果。With the development of modern information technology, network media has brought increasing influence on people's life. Based on the report text of network media, the impact data of inflation signal is constructed to empirically study the impact mechanism and degree of inflation signal on residents' welfare. The results show that the increase in the number of price information shocks will improve the accuracy of residents' price expectations, which will have a positive impact on residents' welfare;the specific content and direction of inflation report will affect welfare changes, and the strengthening of inflation tone will cause welfare losses. The influence of media signals on residents' welfare exists channel heterogeneity and individual heterogeneity, that is, inflation signals of different media types will lead to different changes in residents' welfare, and media signals will also have different impacts on different groups. The increase in the number of inflation reports will improve the welfare level by influencing residents' consumption decisions and income. A stronger tone in the direction of reporting leads to higher expected inflation, higher savings, and lower welfare levels. Therefore, all sectors of society should pay attention to the important influence and transmission mode of media information, and adopt rational and reasonable ways to guide price reports to produce more positive and controllable effects.

关 键 词：网络媒体 通胀信号冲击 居民福利 信息技术 

分 类 号：F061.4[经济管理—政治经济学] F49F062.5