中国城市内部多中心结构对碳排放强度的影响及其机制  

The impact and mechanism of polycentric structure within Chinese cities on carbon emission intensity

作　　者：邹璇[1] 杨旭 刘晨 ZOU Xuan;YANG Xu;LIU Chen(School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410079,China;School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,长沙410079 [2]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,武汉430073

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第7期1284-1298,共15页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23FJLB013);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2022JJ30181);湖南省社会科学基金项目(22ZDB049)。

摘　　要：【目的】中国城市化已经处于由中期向后期的过渡阶段,城市内部多中心结构正在加速演化,探究其对碳排放强度存在什么影响以及如何影响,可从空间规划视角为低碳城市建设提供新思路。【方法】以2006—2020年中国279个地级及以上城市为研究对象,采用固定效应模型、工具变量及倾向得分匹配等方法,实证检验了多中心结构的碳减排效应及其内在机制。【结果】①2006—2020年,城市碳排放强度呈现下降趋势,空间分布上具有“核心-边缘”结构与省际边界现象,东西差距的变动较小而南北差距有所上升。城市多中心结构呈现上升趋势,地理分布的聚类特征较为稳定。②多中心结构能够显著降低碳排放强度,但存在区域异质性。其碳减排效应在东部和西部城市高于中部城市,南方城市高于北方城市;此外,该效应仅存在于经济高水平或人口规模大的城市。③影响机制表明,多中心结构能够通过促进服务业更快发展、优化土地利用结构以及吸引高生产率企业区位选择3条途径降低碳排放强度,但企业区位选择最终呈现分类集聚还是混同集聚在不同城市间具有异质性。【结论】面向城市化新阶段,需要支持城市多中心发展策略,但同时应把握多中心结构碳减排效应有效发挥的前提条件以及畅通传导渠道等。[Objective]As China transitions from mid-stage to late-stage urbanization,the polycentric structure of cities is accelerating.This study explored its impact on carbon emission intensity and the underlying mechanisms.From a spatial planning perspective,it aimed to provide new insights for low-carbon city construction.[Methods]The study examined 279 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2006 to 2020.Using a two-way fixed effects model,instrumental variables,and propensity score matching,it empirically tested the carbon emission reduction effects of the urban polycentric structure and its underlying mechanisms.[Results](1)From 2006 to 2020,urban carbon emission intensity showed a declining trend.Spatially,it exhibited a core-periphery structure and provincial boundary phenomena,with minor changes in the east-west gap and an increase in the north-south gap.The urban polycentric structure showed an upward trend with stable geographic clustering characteristics.(2)The polycentric structure significantly reduced carbon emission intensity,but there is regional heterogeneity.It was higher in eastern and western cities compared to central cities and higher in southern cities compared to northern cities.Additionally,it was only present in economically advanced cities and cities with a large population.(3)The mechanism analyses indicated that the urban polycentric structure reduced carbon emission intensity through three pathways:promoting faster development of the service industry,optimizing land use structure,and attracting high-productivity enterprises.However,whether enterprise location choices result in sectoral-specific or mixed clustering varied between cities.[Conclusion]In the new stage of urbanization,supporting the development of polycentric cities is necessary.However,it is crucial to understand the preconditions for the effective carbon emission reduction effects of the urban polycentric structure and to create smooth transmission channels.

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 城市内部 多中心结构 碳排放强度 集聚经济 中国 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]