中国粮食生产的时空格局及分布动态演进  

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Distribution Evolution of Grain Production in China

作　　者：邓昊宇 李成民 曹健 宋玉兰[1] 刘健 DENG Haoyu;LI Chengmin;CAO Jian;SONG Yulan;LIU Jian(College of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济管理学院,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《中国农业科技导报》2024年第9期1-11,共11页Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology

基　　金：旱区现代灌区生态农业发展范式及效果评价项目(2023A02002-6)。

摘　　要：从县域尺度全面考察粮食生产的差异及时空演化特征对提高我国粮食产量和保障粮食安全具有重要参考价值,基于2000—2020年2545个县域尺度数据,运用标准差椭圆、三阶段嵌套泰尔指数和随机核密度估计等方法对我国粮食生产的时空格局及分布动态演进进行研究。结果发现,我国粮食生产整体水平以缓慢的速度上升,粮食生产增长率在2000—2020年呈现明显的波动趋势,在未来很长一段时期内我国粮食产量将保持稳定但粮食生产增长率会略有下滑。空间分布格局上,我国粮食生产的重心向西北方向迁移,呈现出东北-西南的方向性、东南-西北的发展分散性特征。空间差异上,我国粮食生产的总体差异越来越高,虽然我国粮食生产的县域差异贡献率从49.94%下降到29.51%,但县域尺度依然是总体差异最重要的来源。所以,空间差异主要以县域差异为主,其次分别是省间差异、市间差异和区域间差异。空间效应上,我国粮食生产水平呈现增长趋势并存在局部收敛的可能,其空间效应具有连续性,并且在不同时间、县域空间下具有明显的正相关空间效应。协同我国区域经济结构转型发展趋势与现实需求,“双循环”发展格局下细密且深入捕捉区域粮食生产韧性差异,利于各区域因地制宜制定合理有效的粮食生产政策,对于突破粮食生产困境及协调粮食生产安全具有重要意义。Comprehensive examination of the differences in food production and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics from the county scale is an important reference value for improving China’s grain production and guaranteeing food security issues.The spatio-temporal pattern and distributional dynamic evolution of China’s grain production were investigated based on data from 2545 county scales from 2000 to 2020,using standard deviation ellipse,three-stage nested Theil index and stochastic Kernel density estimation etc methods.The results showed that,the overall level of China’s grain production rose at a slow pace,the growth rate of food production showed an obvious fluctuating trend from 2000 to 2020,and China’s grain production would remain stable but the growth rate of fgrain production would decline slightly over a long period of time in the future.In terms of spatial distribution pattern,the center of grain production in China was moving to the northwest,showing the directionality of northeastsouthwest,and the development dispersion of southeast-northwest.In terms of spatial difference,the overall difference in China’s grain production was showing an increasingly high level,and although the contribution rate of county difference in China’s grain production had decreased from 49.94%to 29.51%,the county scale was still the most important source of the overall difference.Therefore,spatial differences were mainly dominated by county differences,followed by inter-provincial differences,inter-municipal differences and inter-regional differences,respectively.In terms of spatial effect,China’s grain production level showed a growing trend and the possibility of local convergence,and its spatial effect had continuity and had obvious positive correlation spatial effect under different time and county space.In coordination with the development trend and practical needs of China’s regional economic structure transformation,the“double cycle”development pattern captured the differences in regional grain p

关 键 词：粮食生产 时空差异 动态演进 随机Kernel密度估计 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]