海外高铁建设项目投资风险渐进决策方法研究  

Research on the Progressive Decision-making Method of Investment Risks in Overseas High-speed Railway Construction Projects

作　　者：亐道远[1] 孟春成 孟阳 段晓晨[1] QU Daoyuan;MENG Chuncheng;MENG Yang;DUAN Xiaochen(Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050043,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄铁道大学,石家庄050043

出　　处：《铁道工程学报》2024年第7期121-126,共6页Journal of Railway Engineering Society

基　　金：河北省教育厅人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(ZD202403);河北省教育厅在读研究生创新能力培养资助项目(CXZZBS2024147);河北大地园林有限公司开发项目(横20220209)。

摘　　要：研究目的:针对“一带一路”倡议下中国高铁“走出去”面临投资失败率颇高、缺乏科学有效的投资决策方法等问题,立足于中国高铁“走出去”企业视角,在风险决策的基础上结合海外高铁建设项目投资特点,建立投资风险渐进决策模型,为海外高铁建设项目的投资决策提供新思路。研究结论:(1)突破了以往研究对象、方法及形式单一的限制,采用更加严谨的纵向递进式决策框架,研究我国高铁企业海外投资风险情况;(2)利用扎根理论提炼决策指标,建立了宏观区位环境和微观项目特点双层决策指标体系;(3)将极限学习机、非线性组合赋权云模型等方法引入海外高铁建设项目投资风险决策中,有效减少了专家主观性影响、提升了决策动态性和准确性;(4)本研究结果可为中国高铁“走出去”企业在国际工程市场上制定科学有效的投资决策提供现实支持。Research purposes:Aiming at the problems of high investment failure rate and lack of scientific and effective investment decision-making methods for China's high-speed railway"Go-Global"under the background of"Belt and Road Initiative",based on the perspective of enterprises and on the basis of risk decision-making,combined with the investment characteristics of overseas high-speed railway construction projects,it establishes a progressive decision-making model of investment risk,which provides a new way of thinking for the investment decision-making of overseas high-speed railway construction projects.Research conclusions:(1)Breaking through the limitations of the single object,method and form of the previous research,it adopts a more rigorous longitudinal progressive decision-making framework to study the risk of China's high speed railway enterprises'overseas investment.(2)The method of Grounded Theory is adopted to refine decision-making indicators,and a two-layer decision-making indicator system is established for macro-location environment and micro project characteristics.(3)The methods such as ELM and Nonlinear Combination Empowerment Cloud Model are introduced into investment risk decision-making of overseas high-speed railway construction projects,to effectively reduce the influence of experts'subjectivity and enhance the dynamics and accuracy of decision-making.(4)The research results can provide realistic support for China's high-speed railway"Go-Global"enterprises to make scientific and effective investment decisions in the international engineering market.

关 键 词：海外高铁 建设项目 投资风险 渐进决策 

分 类 号：F530.3[经济管理—产业经济]