2015—2020年保定市流感发病与空气污染关系研究  

Study on the relationship between the incidence of influenza and air pollution in Baoding City from 2015 to 2020

作　　者：王颖颖 王磊[1] 王露 许振华 张玉玺[1] WANG Yingying;WANG Lei;WANG Lu;XU Zhenhua;ZHANG Yuxi(Environmental Health Monitoring and Evaluation Division,Baoding Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Baoding,Hebei 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]保定市疾病预防控制中心环境健康监测评价科,河北保定071000

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2024年第8期750-754,共5页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：河北省卫健委2021年度河北省医学科学研究课题计划(20210358)。

摘　　要：目的探讨保定市流感样病例与空气污染的关系,为进一步优化流感防控措施提供科学依据。方法对流感样病例监测数据和同期空气污染物数据、气象数据进行描述,对流感样病例的影响因素进行Spearman秩相关分析、多重线性回归分析,采用广义相加模型对各空气污染物与流感发病的关联性进行分析。结果秩相关分析提示,流感样病例的发生与周均细颗粒物(particulate matter 2.5,PM_(2.5))、可吸入颗粒物(particulate matter 10,PM10)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)、CO均呈正相关(r=0.352、0.341、0.309、0.349、0.316,均P<0.05),与周均O3-8h呈负相关(r=-0.200,P<0.05)。多重线性回归结果显示,流感样病例数主要受NO_(2)、SO_(2)、O3的影响,三者的标准化偏回归系数分别为0.284、-0.247、-0.152。广义相加模型结果显示,当PM_(2.5)浓度>100μg/m^(3)、PM10浓度>90μg/m^(3)、O3-8h浓度>120μg/m^(3)时,流感病毒感染发病与三者呈正相关(ER=2.148%、95%CI:0.135%~4.202%,ER=1.022%、95%CI:0.070%~1.983%,ER=1.797%、95%CI:0.158%~3.462%)。结论不同空气污染物浓度对流感发病的影响不同,可根据不同污染物、不同浓度的作用特点,制定相应的流感防控干预措施。Objective To explore the relationship between influenza-like illness and air pollution in Baoding City,and to provide a scientific basis for further optimizing the preventive and control measures of influenza.Methods The monitoring data of influenza-like illness,air pollutant data and meteorological data for the same period were described.The influencing factors of influenza-like illness were analyzed by Spearman rank correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis.The association of air pollutants with influenza incidence was analyzed using the generalized additive model.Results Rank correlation analysis suggested that the occurrence of influenza-like illness were positively correlated with weekly mean particulate matter 2.5(PM_(2.5)),particulate matter 10(PM10),SO_(2),NO_(2),and CO(r=0.352,0.341,0.309,0.349,and 0.316,all P<0.05),and negatively correlated with weekly mean O3-8h(r=-0.200,P<0.05).The results of multiple linear regression showed that the number of influenza-like illness was mainly affected by NO_(2),SO_(2),and O3,with the standardized partial regression coefficients of 0.284,-0.247,and-0.152,respectively.The results of the generalized additive model showed that the onset of Influenza virus infection was positively correlated with PM_(2.5) concentration>100μg/m^(3),PM10 concentration>90μg/m^(3),and O3-8h concentration>120μg/m^(3)(ER=2.148%,95%CI:0.135%-4.202%,ER=1.022%,95%CI:0.070%-1.983%,ER=1.797%,95%CI:0.158%-3.462%).Conclusion Different concentrations of air pollutants have different effects on the onset of influenza.According to the characteristics of the role of different pollutants and different concentrations,appropriate interventions should be formulated to prevent and control influenza.

关 键 词：保定 流感 空气污染 广义相加模型 相关 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]