中等收入群体规模测算及其扩大策略  

Scale Measurement and Expansion Strategies of Middle-income Group

作　　者：马晓河[1] MA Xiao-he

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院

出　　处：《改革》2024年第8期1-9,共9页Reform

摘　　要：一个国家要想成功迈向发达经济体,除经济因素外,还需要构建以中等收入群体(或中产阶层)为主的橄榄型社会结构。在橄榄型社会结构中,中等收入群体就业和收入比较稳定,是增加社会消费和扩大市场需求的主要群体,是科技进步的重要支撑。作为理性群体,他们还是推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的主要阶层。更重要的是,这一群体在贫富两大社会阶层之间形成一个安全屏障和缓冲地带,对低收入者与高收入者两大群体的社会关系起到积极的调节作用。用多种方法测算发现,当前我国中等收入群体规模偏小,对构建橄榄型社会结构还缺乏足够支持。主要原因是,居民收入增长速度持续放缓,国民收入分配结构不合理,不同群体之间收入差距过大,社会保障兜底作用发挥不够。与此同时,产业结构转型过早过快出现资本技术替代、城镇化进程过早过快放缓、生活成本支出压力过大都对中低收入者成长形成制约。另外,制度供给不足影响了中等收入群体的发育和成长。必须采取战略性举措,出台针对性政策,支持中等收入群体稳定成长,为构建橄榄型社会结构创造基础条件。To successfully transition into a developed economy,a country must not only consider economic factors but also establish an olive-shaped social structure dominated by the middle-income group(or the middle class).In such a social structure,the middle-income group,with stable employment and income,forms the primary force driving social consumption and expanding market demand,and serves as a significant pillar supporting technological progress.As a rational group,they are also the main stratum advancing the modernization of national governance systems and capabilities.More importantly,this group acts as a safety barrier and buffer zone between the lower and upper social classes,positively regulating social relations between the low-income and high-income groups.Calculations using various methods indicate that the current size of the middle-income population in China is relatively small,lacking sufficient support for the construction of an olive-shaped social structure.The primary reasons include the continuing slowdown in the growth rate of the population's income,the irrational structure of the distribution of national income,the excessive income gap between different groups,and the insufficient role of social security in covering the bottom line;at the same time,the premature and rapid substitution of capital and technology by the transformation of the industrial structure,the premature and rapid slowdown of the process of urbanization,and the pressure on the cost-of-living expenditures have also imposed constraints on the growth of low-and middle-income earners.Additionally,the development and growth of the middle-income group has also been affected by inadequate institutional provision.Strategic measures must be implemented,along with targeted policies,to support the stable growth of the middle-income group and create fundamental conditions for constructing an olive-shaped social structure.

关 键 词：中等收入群体 橄榄型社会结构 收入分配制度 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]