央行货币政策报告文本复杂度与金融市场稳定——基于短语句法结构复杂度的分析  

Textual Complexity of Central Bank Monetary Policy Report and Financial Markets Stability:Based on the Analysis of Phrase Syntactic Structure Complexity

作　　者：范小云 李皓若 Fan Xiaoyun;Li Haoruo(School of Finance,Nankai University,Tianjin 300350,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学金融学院,300350

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2024年第7期3-21,共19页Nankai Economic Studies

摘　　要：基于前沿的短语句法复杂度识别方法,本文对央行货币政策报告的文本信息进行了分析,并使用2005年第三季度至2021年第四季度的数据探究央行货币政策报告的文本复杂度对金融市场稳定的影响。实证结果表明,较低的央行货币政策报告文本复杂度有利于股票市场和中长期国债市场维持稳定,但是会导致债券市场的整体价格波动幅度上升。央行货币政策报告文本复杂度对外汇市场的影响较小。对央行货币政策报告进一步分析后发现,央行货币政策报告文本复杂度对金融市场稳定的影响主要通过前瞻性指引部分发挥作用。This paper uses natural language processing methods to analyze monetary policy report of PBOC,calculates the text complexity of the reports and explores the relationship between the text indicators and financial markets stability.We use data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2021.The empirical findings show that the complexity of the central bank's monetary policy report positively affects stock price and government bond yield,but negatively impacts overall bond market.Nevertheless,the effect on foreign ex-change markets was relatively limited.Further analysis shows that the text complexity of central bank monetary policy reports mainly affects financial markets through the forwardlooking guidance part.

关 键 词：文本复杂度 中央银行沟通 金融市场稳定 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F832.5