技术性贸易壁垒与出口边际扩张——基于三元边际的研究视角  

Technical Barriers to Trade and Expansion of Export Margins:A Research from the Perspective of Ternary Margins

作　　者：林僖 郑传宣 Lin Xi;Zheng Chuanxuan(School of Economics,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)

机构地区：[1]上海大学经济学院,200444

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2024年第7期124-144,共21页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71903120)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于2000-2018年全球技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)通报信息和HS6分位贸易数据,在HS4分位上计算了68个国家发布的TBT通报的进口覆盖率,并运用Hummels和Klenow方法,对133个出口国的贸易份额进行三元边际分解。在此基础上,采用扩展引力模型分析框架和Ⅳ-2SLS估计方法,从全球多元视角对TBT影响出口三元边际的作用方式和异质性效应进行深入研究。结果表明,TBT对留存出口国的广延边际和数量边际具有显著的正向影响。这种扩张效应抵消了价格边际受到的抑制效应,从而促进了出口份额的整体增长。进一步分析表明,上述由TBT实施带来的边际调整并非仅限于影响被通报产品本身,其关联产品也会因外溢效应而受到类似影响;在不同行业与国别类型之间也存在明显差异。此外,TBT对出口的扩张效应会随出口国政府效能水平的提高而减弱;这种扩张效应主要存在于2008年之前。本文的研究为“新时代”中国健全和完善TBT应对体系和科学评估TBT政策效果,为推进高水平对外开放和促进经济高质量发展,提供了重要的实证支持和政策参考。This paper conducts an in-depth study of the mechanism and heterogeneity effect of Technical Barriers to Trade(TBT)on ternary margins of export from a global perspective.It utilizes the extended gravity model and two-stage least squares estimation technique(Ⅳ-2SLS).By analyzing TBT notifications from 68 countries and trade data reported in six-digit HS codes from 2000 to 2018,the paper calculates the coverage ratio of all these notifications at the four-digit level.This paper also decomposes the trade share of 133 exporting countries to ternary margins following the decomposition methodology initially proposed by Hummels and Klenow.The empirical results suggest that TBT have a significantly positive impact on the share of trade retained by exporters,which is mainly driven by an increase in the extensive margin and quantity index,while the price index is somewhat restricted.Further analysis reveals the existence of spillover effects by showing that the adjustment of ter-nary margins brought about by the adoption of TBT can be observed not only on notified products themselves but also among related products.With expanded analysis,we explore that the expansionary effect of TBT on ternary margins differ by industry and country.Con-cerning exporters,our results indicate a significant weakening of the promotional effect in countries with higher per capita income or greater government effectiveness.Finally,we analyze the heterogeneous impact of TBT with respect to the year in which the notifications were adopted and find that the positive effect was primarily observed in the years preceding 2008.Conclusions drawn in this paper provide valuable insights for China in the new era to(i)establish and optimize a system of actively responding to TBT,(ii)evaluate the effects of relevant policies more scientifically,and thus(iii)promote high-standard opening-up and stable growth in exports by providing important empirical evidence and policy recommendations.

关 键 词：技术性贸易壁垒 三元边际 倒逼机制 扩张效应 

分 类 号：F746.12[经济管理—国际贸易]