政权安全与小马科斯政府对美战略追随——基于“全方位制衡”视角的解释  

The Rise of Marcos Jr.Regime in the Philippines:A Revived Alliance with the United States Explained through Omni-Balancing Perspective

作　　者：薛亮 XUE Liang(Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系研究院,江苏南京210033

出　　处：《边界与海洋研究》2024年第4期107-128,共22页Journal of Boundary and Ocean Studies

基　　金：2023年度国家社科基金青年项目“‘印太经济框架’下东南亚国家的战略选择及中国应对研究”(23CGJ040);2022年度国家社科基金重点项目“东南亚次区域合作与区域格局演变研究”(22ASS004)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在美国政府重振全球联盟体系的进程中,盟友对美国的追随及动机尤为关键,而盟友的国内政治日益成为其中亟待研究的重要变量。在此意义上,“全方位制衡”视角有助于从政权安全的视角,对菲律宾小马科斯政府为何急剧、不断地加深对美战略追随这一备受瞩目的问题提出新的解释。面对变动中的内外安全局面及紧迫威胁,小马科斯政权通过选择异于前任的“务实亲美”政策,达到执掌军政、竞逐南海、绑定美国、激发民粹、制衡国内权威进而巩固统治的目标。正是马科斯政权巩固的动态过程,从根本上推动着菲政府升级对美战略追随政策,而偏离“对冲”是服从于此目标的附带选择。同样,这一态势的未来走向也将由菲国内外政治变数综合决定。其中,联盟强化的“内生路径”颇值得关注。In the process of the US government's revitalization of the global alliance system,the allies bandwagoning and motivation towards the US are particularly crucial,and the allies domestic politics have increasingly become an important variable that needs to be studied.In this sense,the“omnibalancing”perspective helps to provide an explanation centered around regime security for the strategic adherence of the Philippines to its external allies.Faced with changing situations and threats to the regime security,the Marcos regime adopted a“pragmatic pro-American”policy different from its predecessor in order to consolidate its rule.This choice fundamentally drove the Philippine government to upgrade its policy of bandwagoning to the United States as part of consolidating its rule,and moving beyond“hedging”to obey this goal.Likewise,future developments will be determined by a combination of domestic and foreign political variables.Among them,considerable attention deserves to be paid to the“endogenous path”of alliance strengthening.

关 键 词：菲律宾 马科斯 政权安全 全方位制衡 菲美关系 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D834.1[政治法律—外交学]