2002-2021年福建省农业净碳汇的时序特征、影响因素及其趋势预测  

Temporal characteristics,influencing factors and trend prediction of agricultural net carbon sink in Fujian Province from 2002 to 2021

作　　者：董晓龙 张梓坪 连海峰[1,2] 徐诺 黄思洁 DONG Xiaolong;ZHANG Ziping;LIAN Haifeng;XU Nuo;HUANG Sijie(College of Computer and Information Sciences,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University;Key Laboratory for Ecology and Resources Statistics of Fujian Universities,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学计算机与信息学院 [2]生态与资源统计福建省高校重点实验室,福建福州350002

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第5期679-685,共7页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金(2022J01152);中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(2020L3006);福建省省级科技创新重点项目(2021G02007);福建农林大学科技创新专项基金项目(CXZX2020107A)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究福建省农业净碳汇的时序特征、影响因素,并对其变化趋势进行预测,为促进福建省农业低碳发展提供依据。【方法】采用排放因子法测算2002-2021年福建省农业净碳汇,运用拓展随机性环境影响评估STIRPAT(stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence and technology)模型分析福建省农业净碳汇的影响因素,并采用深度神经网络(deep neural networks,DNN)模型预测2025年全省农业净碳汇。【结果】2002-2021年福建省农业净碳汇整体呈“波动下降-平稳上升”的变化趋势;种植业碳排放占比较大,以水稻和化肥碳排放为主;水稻和蔬菜对碳汇贡献较大;城镇化水平、能源消耗水平、农业净碳汇强度、农村经济发展水平和农村居民人均可支配收入均可提升农业净碳汇,其中,能源消耗水平的提升效果最为显著;2025年农业净碳汇预计比2021年上升36.30%。【结论】近年来福建省农业净碳汇量呈逐年上升的趋势,预测2025年农业净碳汇量比2021年提高36.30%。【Objective】The temporal characteristics,influencing factors and trends in agricultural net carbon sink in Fujian Province were studied to provide a theoretical basis for the development of low-carbon agriculture in Fujian.【Method】Agricultural net carbon sink in Fujian during 2002-2021 were estimated by emission factor method,and its influential factors were analyzed using the ex-tended stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology(STIRPAT)model,followed by the prediction of agricultural net carbon sink in 2025 using deep neural networks(DNN)model.【Result】From 2002 to 2021,the overall agricultural net carbon sink in Fujian demonstrated a trend of“fluctuatingly downward and steadily upward”.Crop production accounted for a significant portion of agricultural carbon emissions,mainly from rice cultivation and the use of fertilizer;in the meantime,rice and vegetables were also contributed to carbon absorption significantly.The levels of urbanization and energy consumption,agricultural net carbon sink intensity,rural economic development,and per capita disposable income of rural residents were primary factors in enhancing agricultural net carbon sink,with the most promotive effect being from energy consumption.In comparison to its level in 2021,agricultural net carbon sink in Fujian was expected to increase by 36.30%in 2025.【Conclusion】In recent years,the agricul-tural net carbon sink in Fujian Province showed an increasing trend year by year,and the agricultural net carbon sink in 2025 was predicted to increase by 36.30%compared with that in 2021.

关 键 词：福建省 农业净碳汇 时序特征 拓展STIRPAT模型 DNN模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F302.5[经济管理—产业经济]