人口老龄化、产业结构与劳动收入份额  

Population Aging,Industrial Structure and Labor Income Share

作　　者：吴雨桐 路先锋 李军[2] WU Yutong;LU Xianfeng;LI Jun(School of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Institute of Quantitative&Technological Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《经济经纬》2024年第4期94-107,共14页Economic Survey

基　　金：中国社会科学院经济大数据与政策评估实验室(2024SYZH004)。

摘　　要：基于1994—2017年中国省际面板数据,利用门槛效应模型,从产业结构视角考察了人口老龄化对劳动收入份额的非线性影响。研究发现:人口老龄化对劳动收入份额的影响呈现由负到正的非线性变化,产业结构发挥了重要调节作用,当第三产业与第二产业比值超过0.871时,人口老龄化对劳动收入份额的影响由负转正;在负向影响阶段,人口老龄化通过劳动资本的“相对价格”渠道与“相对数量”渠道对劳动收入份额产生影响,在正向影响阶段,“相对数量”渠道的作用不再显著,人口老龄化主要通过“相对价格”渠道对劳动收入份额产生影响;异质性检验发现,市场化程度和经济发展水平越高的地区,人口老龄化对劳动收入份额由负转正的影响越显著。Based on China’s inter-provincial panel data from 1994 to 2017,this paper uses the threshold effect model of industrial structure to highlight the nonlinear impact of population aging on labor income expenditures from the perspective of industrial structure.The results show that during the sample period,the impact of population aging on labor income share exhibits a nonlinear transition from negative to positive,with industrial structure playing a crucial moderating role.Specifically,when the ratio of the tertiary industry to the secondary industry exceeds 0.871,the effect of population aging on labor income share shifts from negative to positive.In the negative impact stage,population aging affects labor income share through both the“relative price”and“relative quantity”channels of labor capital.However,in the positive impact stage,the“relative quantity”channel is no longer significant,and population aging primarily influences labor income share through the“relative price”channel.Heterogeneity tests indicate that in regions with higher marketization levels and economic development,the positive shift in the impact of population aging on labor income share is more pronounced.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 劳动收入份额 产业结构 要素替代弹性 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学] F124