地方政府隐性债务、债务置换与企业商业信用  

Local Government Implicit Debt,Debt Replacement and Enterprise Commercial Credit

作　　者：苏明政 SU Mingzheng(School of Economics,Bohai University,Jinzhou,121013,China)

机构地区：[1]渤海大学经济学院,辽宁锦州121013

出　　处：《经济经纬》2024年第4期149-160,共12页Economic Survey

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L19BJY001)。

摘　　要：以2010—2021年A股上市公司数据和地方经济数据为样本,使用面板数据二阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)等方法检验了地方政府隐性债务扩张对企业商业信用供给行为的影响及作用机理,并对债务置换的微观效果进行评估。研究表明:地方政府隐性债务扩张显著抑制了企业的商业信用供给,在考虑内生性与多种稳健性检验后,结论依然成立。机制检验表明,商业银行的信用创造能力与企业的可持续发展能力在隐性债务扩张对企业商业信用供给影响中发挥着中介效应。政策效应检验表明,隐性债务置换政策的实施促进了企业商业信用供给的增加。异质性检验发现,地方政府隐性债务扩张对企业商业信用供给的抑制性影响在东部地区和民营企业中表现得更为明显。研究结论对深入理解地方政府隐性债务对实体经济的影响具有一定的理论与现实意义。Based on the listed companies and local economic data from 2010 to 2021,this paper uses panel data two-stage least squares method,double difference method and other methods to test the impact and mechanism of local government implicit debt expansion on corporate commercial credit supply behavior.At the same time,the micro effect of debt replacement as an implicit debt governance policy is evaluated.The empirical results indicate that the expansion of implicit debt by local governments significantly suppresses the supply of commercial credit to enterprises.And after considering endogeneity and various robustness tests,the conclusion still holds true.The mechanism testing shows that the credit creation ability of commercial banks and the sustainable development ability of enterprises play a mediating role in the impact of implicit debt expansion on the supply of commercial credit for enterprises.The policy effect test reveals that the implementation of implicit debt replacement policy significantly promotes the increase of commercial credit supply for enterprises.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inhibitory effect of local government implicit debt expansion on the commercial credit supply of enterprises is more pronounced in the eastern region and private enterprises.The conclusion of this paper has certain theoretical and practical significance for a deeper understanding of the impact of local government implicit debt on the real economy.

关 键 词：地方政府隐性债务 债务置换 企业商业信用 商业银行信用创造 企业可持续发展 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]