气象条件变化对我国农业经济增长的影响研究  

The Impact of Meteorological Conditions Change on Agricultural Economic Growth in China

作　　者：刘丰 LIU Feng(Institute of Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,200020)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院经济研究所,200020

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2024年第8期69-81,共13页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室开放课题(项目编号:2023003K)阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：众所周知,气象条件对农业生产至关重要,但学界对农业经济增长具体影响程度缺乏重视。为了探究气象变化与农业经济增长的相关性,本文利用1997-2022年中国省级面板数据,实证分析气温和降水对我国农业经济增长的影响。实证研究发现,气温和降水对农业经济增长不仅具有产出效应,还存在价格效应。气温和降水的作用效应呈先增后减再增的变化趋势,第一次作用方向变化源于生产率效应由正转负,而第二次改向由种植结构调整和价格上涨共同决定。进一步,气温和降水对农业经济增长的影响存在着显著的时间周期性和地域差异性特征,其中,气温对农业经济增长贡献区间为[-1.71%,1.37%],降水贡献区间为[-0.98%,1.15%]。气温和降水的变化有利于广东等南方地区农业经济增长,但对长江中下游地区农业产生负面影响。此外,气温和降水对东北、华北等地区农业分别产生负向和正向的影响。这一发现证明气象与农业经济高度相关,遵循这一客观规律,推进农业经济增长的政策选择理念应当是密切关注气象变化的短、中、长期影响,由此确定农业发展的短、中、长期政策,以及相关的财政、金融等配套政策。As is well known,meteorological conditions are crucial to agricultural production,but the academic community lacks a specific focus on the extent of their impact on agricultural economic economic growth.In order to examine the correlation between meteorological changes and agricultural growth,this study utilizes panel data from Chinese provinces covering the years 1997 to 2022 to empirically analyze the effects of temperature and precipitation on agricultural economic growth in China.The empirical research finds that temperature and precipitation not only have output effects on agricultural economic growth but also exhibit price effects.The effects of temperature and precipitation show a pattern of initial increase,then decrease,and increase again.The initial change in direction is attributed to a shift from positive to negative productivity effects,while the subsequent change is determined by adjustments in crop structure and price increases.Furthermore,the impact of temperature and precipitation on agricultural economic growth shows significant temporal periodicity and regional differences.The temperature contributes to agricultural economic growth within the range of[-1.71%,1.37%],while precipitation contributes within the range of[-0.98%,1.15%].Changes in temperature and precipitation benefit agricultural economic growth in southern regions like Guangdong but have negative impacts on agriculture in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Additionally,temperature and precipitation have respectively negative and positive effects on agriculture in Northeast China,North China,and other regions.This discovery proves that meteorology is highly correlated with agricultural economic activities.Adhering to this objective principle,the policy framework for advancing agricultural economic growth should involve closely monitoring the short-term,medium-term,and long-term effects of meteorological changes for the development of corresponding short-term,medium-term,and long-term agricultural policies,as well as re

关 键 词：气温 降水 农业经济增长 产出效应 价格效应 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]