山东半岛强对流天气学特征及落区预报研究  

Study on the synoptic characteristics and precipitation prediction of strong convection in Shandong peninsula

作　　者：梅婵娟 褚子禾 张灿 苏轶 万夫敬[1,5] MEI Chanjuan;CHU Zihe;ZHANG Can;SU Yi;WAN Fujing(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong Province,Jinan 250031,China;Weihai Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province,Weihai 264200,China;Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang 524000,China;Jinan Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province,Jinan 370100,China;Qingdao Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province,Qingdao 266000,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点试验室,山东济南250031 [2]山东省威海市气象局,山东威海264200 [3]广东海洋大学,广东湛江524000 [4]山东省济南市气象局,山东济南370100 [5]山东省青岛市气象局,山东青岛266000

出　　处：《海洋湖沼通报（中英文）》2024年第4期11-21,共11页Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021MD010);中国气象局公服中心创新基金项目(M2021019);山东省气象局预报员专项(SDYBY2016-10)。

摘　　要：对2015—2020年山东半岛强对流不同天气分型下的时空分布特征、物理量参数、落区预报进行了分析研究。结果表明:强对流天气主要发生在低槽、高空冷涡、西北气流、副高边缘和横槽5种天气形势下;强对流天气事件主要集中在6—8月,下午至夜间最易发生,多为不均匀分布;空间分布主要表现为西部型、东部型、全区型和局部型四种特征,其中局部型事件最多;不同的天气形势配置,物理量参数特征差异较大,副高边缘型CAPE值和K指数均大于其他形势,高空冷涡型的垂直风切变SHR6和总指数TT数值最大,西北气流型的CAPE值、K指数偏小,SI值可为正数;弱冷锋和海风锋导致强对流最易发生在烟台西部,随后东移减弱,东部型多发生在夜间,多为地面辐合线影响所致,倒槽的位置不同也决定着强对流落区的不同;全区型主要发生在高空冷涡或者强的低槽冷锋影响之下;局部型与副高边缘及西北气流型相对应,地面辐合线为主要触发系统,与海陆地形和山区地形有很好的对应关系。The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics,physical parameters,and fallout forecasts of strong convection under different weather typologies in Shandong peninsula from 2015 to 2020 were analyzed and studied.The results showed that:strong convective weather mainly occurred under five weather situations,namely,low trough,high-altitude cold vortex,northwesterly flow,edge of the sub-tropical height and transverse trough;strong convective weather events mainly concentrated in June-August,and were most likely to occur in the afternoon to the nighttime,and were mostly unevenly distributed;the spatial distribution mainly exhibited four characteristics,namely,western-type,eastern-type,area-wide-type,and local-type,with local-type events being the most frequent.The physical parameter characteristics differed greatly among different weather situation configurations,and the physical parameter characteristics varied greatly among different weather situations.The physical parameters of different weather configurations varied greatly,with the CAPE value and K index of the sub-tropical height edge type being larger than those of other situations,the vertical wind shear SHR6 and the total index TT of the high-altitude cold vortex type being the largest,the CAPE value and K index of the northwesterly flow type being small,and the SI value being positive.Strong convection caused by weak cold fronts and sea-breeze fronts was most likely to occur in the western part of Yantai,and then moved eastward to become weaker,and the eastern type was more likely to happen at night.The eastern type mostly occurred at night,mostly due to the influence of the surface convergence line,and the different positions of the inversion trough also determined the different fallout areas of the strong convection.The region-wide type mainly occurred under the influence of the upper-air cold vortex or the strong trough cold front;the local type corresponded to the edge of the subduction plateau and the northwesterly airflow type,with the surface c

关 键 词：强对流天气 天气分型 物理量 落区预报 

分 类 号：P446[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]