基于集对分析的岸线资源开发利用风险评估——以长江江苏段为例  

Risk Assessment of Shoreline Resources Development and Utilization Based on Set Pair Analysis:A Case Study of the Jiangsu Section of the Yangtze River

作　　者：方国华[1] 杨赟 张程 陆洋洋 FANG Guo-hua;YANG Yun;ZHANG Chen;LU Yang-yang(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2024年第8期1679-1690,共12页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：江苏省水利科技项目(2022013)。

摘　　要：科学客观地评估岸线资源开发利用风险水平,是合理保护与开发利用岸线资源的基础。基于DPSIR模型构建岸线资源开发利用风险评估指标体系,采用序关系分析法和CRITIC法分别计算各指标主客观权重,运用博弈论原理计算指标组合权重,基于集对分析理论构建岸线资源开发利用风险评估模型,并结合Moran’s I、冷热点分析等方法分析风险空间分布特征。对长江江苏段进行实例研究,结果表明:长江江苏段岸线资源开发利用风险总体等级为较低风险,风险较高的区域分布于南京市江北新区和栖霞区,以及苏州沿江区域入海口一带;风险空间分布具有明显的组团特征,热点区分布于南京与仪征、镇江邻接区域,以及南通崇川区与苏州市辖区的环长江入海口区域,这些区域是未来长江岸线资源开发利用风险管控的重点区域;最后基于风险评估结果,从优化港口码头布局、加大岸线监管力度、加强岸线生态修复等方面提出长江江苏段岸线资源管理保护对策。Scientifically and objectively assessing the risk level of development and utilization of shoreline resources is the cornerstone for rational protection and development and utilization of shoreline resources.Based on the DPSIR model,the risk assessment index system of shoreline resource development and utilization was constructed.The subjective and objective weights of each index were calculated by the sequential relationship analysis method and the CRITIC method.The combined weights of indicators were calculated by the principle of game theory.The risk assessment model of shoreline resource development and utilization was constructed based on the set pair analysis theory.The spatial distribution characteristics of risks were analyzed by combining Moran′s I,cold and hot spot analysis.Finally,countermeasures for shoreline resource management and protection were proposed.Taking the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River as a case study,the results indicated that the overall risk level of shoreline resource development and utilization was relatively low.Areas with higher risks were concentrated in the Jiangbei New Area and Qixia District of Nanjing,as well as the estuary of Suzhou.The spatial distribution of risk exhibited clear clustering,with hotspots found in the adjacent areas of Nanjing,Yizheng,and Zhenjiang,as well as the region around the estuary of the Yangtze River in Chongchuan District of Nantong and Suzhou Municipality.These areas were identified as the key regions for future risk management and control of shoreline resource development and utilization.Finally,based on the results of the risk assessment,strategies for the management and protection of shoreline resources in the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River were proposed,in terms of optimizing the layout of ports and terminals,enhancing shoreline supervision,and strengthening shoreline ecological restoration.

关 键 词：岸线资源 开发利用风险评估 集对分析 空间分析 DPSIR模型 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]