能源输送转型困境的症结解析与破解路径——基于多区域CGE模型的“三西”地区-京津冀地区“输煤转输电”研究  

Analysis of the dilemma and resolution path of energy transmission transformation—A study on“structure adjustment of coal electric energy transport”from the“Sanxi Region”to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on a multi-regional CGE model

作　　者：姜春海[1] 王敏[1] 李亚静 JIANG Chunhai;WANG Min;LI Yajing(Economics Center for Industrial and Business Organization,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Economics College,Dalian University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116622,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,大连116025 [2]大连财经学院经济学院,大连116622

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第8期2434-2455,共22页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790007);辽宁教育厅项目(LN2019J10);辽宁社科基金(L18BJY023);东北财经大学省级以上科研平台研究能力提升专项(PT-Y202211)。

摘　　要：“输煤转输电”对于改善能源受端地区生态环境和减少煤炭消费具有重要作用,但现实中却陷入困境.本文基于“三西”地区向京津冀地区“输煤转输电”实践,利用多区域CGE模型定量分析了“输煤转输电”对二者的环境、经济和社会效应.发现当前“输煤转输电”能源输送转型困境的根本症结在于能源送端与受端地区之间利益失衡,即京津冀地区大气环境获益而“三西”地区却遭受大气环境和经济双重负面冲击.本文结合“十四五”大气环保目标,得出2021–2025年“三西”地区向京津冀地区“输煤转输电”的年均增长合理区间为[14%,27%],提出对两地区开展联合大气治污的环保优化税率区间,以及经济补偿和分配方案.本文为摆脱“输煤转输电”转型困境提供了破解路径和方案参考,有助于京津冀地区顺利完成生态目标.“The adjustment of coal-based electric energy transportation”plays a significant role in enhancing the ecological environment and reducing coal consumption in recipient areas.However,it faces challenges in practice.This study examines the“Structure adjustment of coal electric energy transport”from the“Sanxi Region”to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on real-world experiences.By employing a multi-regional CGE model,this paper quantitatively analyzes the environmental,economic,and social impacts of this adjustment on both regions.The research reveals that the primary issue with the current transition is the imbalance of interests between the sending and receiving areas.Specifically,while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region benefits from improved air quality,the“Sanxi Region”suffers from negative effects on both the atmosphere and economy.Considering China’s 14th Five-Year Plan environmental protection goals,this paper suggests an optimal annual growth range for coal-based electric energy transportation from 2021 to 2025 of[14%,27%].Additionally,it proposes an optimized tax rate range for joint air pollution control and an economic compensation plan.This research offers a solution path and reference for overcoming challenges in the transformation of coal-based electric energy transportation and contributes to achieving ecological objectives in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

关 键 词：输煤转输电 污染转移 环境保护税 大气治污 经济补偿 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]