环境风险感知触发社会风险的逻辑机理与治理之道  

The Logical Mechanism and Governance of Social Risk Triggered by Environmental Risk Perception

作　　者：张小明 张欣 Zhang Xiaoming;Zhang Xin

机构地区：[1]中共中央党校(国家行政学院)应急管理研究院(中欧应急管理学院),北京100091 [2]中共江西省委党校,江西应急管理研究中心,南昌330108

出　　处：《南京社会科学》2024年第8期52-62,75,共12页Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社科基金重大项目“统筹发展和安全理念下建设‘更高水平的平安中国’测评的理论、方法与指标体系研究”(21ZDA112)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：近年来,国内环境信访事件和环境群体性事件易发多发。这些缘起于环境领域的风险缘何会演化成社会风险?本文聚焦两项关键要素:环境风险感知与抗争意愿,试图以此来解释公众环境风险感知触发社会风险的逻辑机理与治理之道。基于数据分析结果,研究发现,环境风险感知显著正向影响公众抗争意愿,政府信任在二者间发挥中介作用,政府回应、信息公开削弱并调节环境风险感知与政府信任的关系,环境治理的调节作用不显著。这说明,公众的环境风险感知降低了政府受信任水平,继而激发并放大了抗争意愿,由此助长了社会风险的萌生。而政府回应与信息公开水平的提升能够弱化环境风险感知对政府信任的负向影响,继而间接降低公众抗争意愿,由此在一定程度上阻断环境风险向社会风险的转换。In recent years,the country has been prone to environmental petitions and environmental mass incidents.Why do these environmental risks evolve into social risks?This study focuses on two key elements:environmental risk perception and willingness to resist,and tries to explain the logical mechanism and governance of social risks triggered by public environmental risk perception.Based on the data of CSS 2017,this study finds that environmental risk perception significantly and positively affects the public's willingness to resist,government trust plays a mediating role,government response and information disclosure weaken the relationship between environmental risk perception and government trust,and the moderating effect of environmental governance is not significant.This suggests that the public's perception of environmental risk reduces their level of government trust,which in turn stimulates and amplifies the willingness to resist,thus contributing to the emergence of social risk.The improvement of government response and information disclosure can weaken the negative effect of environmental risk perception on government trust,which in turn indirectly reduces the public's willingness to resist,and thus to a certain extent blocks the conversion of environmental risk to social risk.This suggests that governments at all levels should cultivate government trust,improve government response and increase information disclosure in order to mitigate social risks and maintain social stability.

关 键 词：环境风险感知 抗争意愿 社会风险 政府信任 政府回应 信息公开 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]