农户宅基地退出意愿的代际差异研究——基于天水市清水县为例  

Intergenerational Differences in Farmers’Homestead Withdrawal Intentions-Based on Qingshui County,Tianshui City as an Example

作　　者：王星 Xing Wang(School of Management of Gansu Agriculture University,Lanzhou Gansu)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学管理学院,甘肃兰州

出　　处：《运筹与模糊学》2024年第4期144-153,共10页Operations Research and Fuzziology

摘　　要：本文以清水县地区农户为研究对象,利用二元Logistic回归分析进行各因素的显著性分析,分析出了影响清水县农户宅基地退出意愿的4个主要因素。其次,将农户的宅基地退出意愿与农户“代”分类变量之间进行卡方检验,以验证清水县农户的代际差异是否会与农户的宅基地退出产生显著关联。最后,再次利用逻辑回归模型,分别分析了影响该地区新老农户宅基地退出意愿的主要因素,并结合该分析结果进行了总结及比较分析。本研究主要结论包括:(1)在周边城市是否购买商品房、年龄、收入来源以及农业收入占比,是影响清水县农户宅基地退出意愿的4个核心作用因子。(2)对于清水新生代农户而言,城市购买了商品房,则更愿意接受农村宅基地退出;而农业收入占比更多,则越愿意保留农村的宅基地。对于年长一代农户以务农为主对自己的宅基地退出意愿就不强烈,然而若该群体传承意愿越低,对自家的宅基地退出意愿就越强烈。(3)对于新生代农户来说,在周边城市是否购买商品房对宅基地退出意愿的影响最大,其次收入来源,农业收入占比,宅基地是否有传承意愿对宅基地退出意愿的影响依次递减;对于传统农户来说,在周边城市是否购买商品房对宅基地退出意愿的影响最大,其次是农业收入占比,收入来源,宅基地是否有传承意愿。Taking farmers in Qingshui County as the study object,the binary Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze four main factors that affect the withdrawal intention of farmers in Qingshui County.Secondly,a chi-square test was conducted between farmers’homestead withdrawal inten-tion and the categorical variables of farmers’“generation”to verify whether the intergenerational differences of farmers in Qingshui County would have a significant association with farmers’homestead withdrawal.Finally,using the logistic regression model,we analyzed the main factors affecting the withdrawal intention of new and old farmers in this area,and summarized and com-pared the results.The main conclusions of this study include:(1)whether to purchase commercial housing,age,income source and agricultural income ratio in surrounding cities,which are four core factors affecting the intention of farmers to withdraw their homestead in Qingshui County.(2)For the new generation of Qingshui farmers,the city is more willing to accept the withdrawal of rural homestead;while the agricultural income is more,the more willing to retain the rural homestead.For the older generation of farmers,there is not a strong willingness to quit their homestead.How-ever,the lower the group’s willingness to inherit,the stronger the willingness to quit their home-stead.(3)For the new generation of farmers,whether to purchase commercial houses in the sur-rounding cities has the greatest influence on the withdrawal intention of the homestead,with the second income source,the proportion of agricultural income;for the traditional farmers,whether the purchase of commercial houses in the surrounding cities has the greatest influence,followed by the proportion of agricultural income,and whether the homestead has the inheritance inten-tion.

关 键 词：农户宅基地退出意愿 代际差异 影响因素 二元LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]