从追随到对冲:中美大国博弈背景下沙特的战略转向  

From Bandwagoning to Hedging:Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Shift amid China-U.S.Competition

作　　者：王高阳[1,2] 康鑫宇 WANG Gaoyang;KANG Xinyu

机构地区：[1]郑州大学政治与公共管理学院,郑州450001 [2]郑州大学当代资本主义研究中心,郑州450001

出　　处：《国际展望》2024年第5期109-129,149,150,共23页Global Review

基　　金：河南省重点研发与推广专项(软科学)重点项目“总体国家安全观视野下的科技安全问题及其应对策略研究”(232400411027)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：作为中东地区的重要国家,沙特阿拉伯既是中国“一带一路”倡议的支点国家,也是美国在中东地区维系霸权的重要支柱国家。当前,中美大国博弈正由亚太地区向其他地区扩展,沙特虽然面临大国博弈带来的压力,但也增加了其地缘战略调整的灵活性与自主性。为了确保自身利益最大化,近年来沙特逐渐将其长期奉行的大国追随政策转变为对冲战略,借助中国的影响力,摆脱对美国的长期单边依赖。随着中美战略竞争的加剧及在中东地区博弈的激烈化,未来沙特将面临战略选择困境。在大国博弈升级的背景下,沙特维持对冲战略的空间将持续受到体系压力、中美影响力对比差异以及沙特自身应对能力的影响。目前沙中、沙美关系出现剧烈波动的可能性较低,在未来一段时间内沙特仍具有较大的维持对冲战略的空间。As an important pole in the Middle East,Saudi Arabia is not only a pivotal country along China’s BRI routes,but also a linchpin of U.S.regional policy in the Middle East.At present,China-U.S.competition is expanding from the Indo-Pacific region to a wider area,and although Saudi Arabia is facing the pressure brought by the great power game,it has also increased the flexibility and autonomy of geostrategic adjustment.In order to maximize its own interests and avoid risks at the same time,in recent years,Saudi Arabia has gradually transformed its long-standing“bandwagon policy”of great powers into a“hedging strategy.”Introducing Chinese influence and breaking away from its long-term unilateral dependence on the United States is a key part of this strategy.However,the escalation of strategic competition in the Middle East confronts Saudi Arabia with a dilemma.The space for Saudi Arabia to maintain the“hedging strategy”will be affected by the systemic pressure,the different influences that China and the United States exert on Saudi Arabia,and Riyadh’s ability to cope with the evolving external environment.At present,the possibility of dramatic fluctuations in the trilateral relationship between Saudi Arabia,China,and the United States is still low,and for a longer period of time Saudi Arabia will still have more space to maintain the hedging strategy.

关 键 词：沙特阿拉伯 中美博弈 中等强国 对冲战略 追随政策 

分 类 号：D838.40[政治法律—政治学]