基于盲数理论改进云模型的露天矿爆破安全评估研究  

Research on safety assessment of open pit blasting based on blind number theory and improved cloud model

作　　者：朱必勇 ZHU Biyong(Changsha Institute of Mining Research Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410012,China;State Key Laboratory of Metal Mine Safety Technology,Changsha 410012,China;Hunan Province Mine Geological Disaster Prevention and Environmental Reconstruction Engineering Technology Research Center,Changsha 410012,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙矿山研究院有限责任公司,长沙410012 [2]金属矿山安全技术国家重点实验室,长沙410012 [3]湖南省矿山地质灾害防治与环境再造工程技术研究中心,长沙410012

出　　处：《有色金属科学与工程》2024年第4期543-552,共10页Nonferrous Metals Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2019YFC0605305)。

摘　　要：为使爆破安全评估更科学,进一步提高评估结果的可靠性,提出了露天矿爆破安全评估的盲数理论改进云模型。从安全管理、组织设计、现场施工3个方面,选取了15个典型影响因素,构建了露天矿爆破安全综合评价指标体系;基于盲数理论,建立盲数矩阵确定指标综合得分,改进了传统定性指标赋值方式,运用博弈论思想获取指标综合权重,利用云模型原理,通过计算综合确定度,以最大隶属度为评判原则,确定露天矿爆破安全等级;以3座露天矿爆破过程为例,进行爆破安全等级评估。结果显示:3座露天矿山爆破安全等级分别为Ⅳ级、Ⅳ级和Ⅴ级,与爆破现场调查结论一致;通过对比模糊数学和未确知测度理论评价结果,盲数理论改进云模型能够有效降低评估过程的盲目性,评估结果更严谨保守,表明盲数理论改进云模型在露天矿爆破安全评估方面具有优越性和适用性,体现了研究价值,可为露天矿爆破安全评估和识别爆破薄弱环节提供理论依据。To make the blasting safety assessment of open pit mines more scientific and enhance its reliability of the assessment results,blind number theory and improved cloud model were introduced to improve safety assessment of open pit blasting.In this paper,a comprehensive evaluation indicator system of such safety assessment was formed from such three aspects as safety management,organizational design,and on-site construction after 15 typical influencing factors were selected.Based on the blind number theory,the blind number matrix was established to determine the comprehensive index score,which improved the traditional qualitative index assignment method.The comprehensive weight of the index was determined by the game theory,and the comprehensive certainty was calculated based on the principle of the cloud model,thereby determining the comprehensive evaluation of blasting safety in open-pit mines on the maximum membership degree principle.Three open-pit mines were taken as an example to discuss their blasting process and assess the model’s blasting safety levels.The results showed that their blasting safety levels wereⅣ,Ⅳ,and V levels in consistent with the actual blasting site.By comparing the evaluation results of fuzzy mathematics and unascertained measures,the blind number theory and improved cloud model can reduce the blindness of the evaluation process,and the evaluation results are more rigorous and conservative.This verifies the superiority and applicability of the model in the safety evaluation of open-pit mine blasting,reflects the research value,and can provide a theoretical basis for the safety evaluation and identification of weak links in open-pit mine blasting.

关 键 词：露天矿爆破 安全评估 盲数理论 云模型 区间层次分析法 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]