基于天气预报的泾惠渠灌区参考作物滕发量预报模型研究  

Study on the Forecast Model of Reference Crop Yield in Jinghuiqu Irrigation Area Based on Weather Forecast

作　　者：韩红亮[1] 胡文兵 王雪梅[1] 董爱红 Han Hongliang;Hu Wenbing;Wang Xuemei;Dong Aihong(Yangling Vocational&Technical College,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi;Xianyang Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Center,Xianyang 712000,Shanxi)

机构地区：[1]杨凌职业技术学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]咸阳水文水资源勘测中心,陕西咸阳712000

出　　处：《陕西水利》2024年第10期1-3,14,共4页Shaanxi Water Resources

基　　金：杨凌职业技术学院自然基金研究项目(ZK2020-04)。

摘　　要：农业节水背景下,对泾惠渠灌区参考作物滕发量预报方法进行研究,选用Hargreaves-Samani公式作为预报模型,运用中国气象数据网泾河站2008年~2020年13个年份的气象数据进行SPSS参数反演,并采用2022年的实测气象数据进行验证,表明适合泾惠渠灌区的Hargreaves-Samani模型参数为C=0.00122、a=14.19、m=0.259。通过验证,83.2%验证值相对误差在20%以内,同时表明Hargreaves-Samani模型进行参考作物滕发量预报时,呈现“夏季>春季>秋季>冬季”的精度分布规律,可为灌区灌溉预报和智慧水利发展提供实用的理论依据。Under the background of agricultural water saving,the prediction method of reference crop evapotranspiration in Jinghuiqu irrigation area was studied.Hargreaves-Samani formula was selected as the prediction model.The meteorological data of Jinghe station in China Meteorological Data Network from 2008 to 2020 were used for SPSS parameter inversion,and the measured meteorological data in 2022 were used for verification.The results showed that the Hargreaves-Samani model parameters suitable for Jinghuiqu irrigation area were C=0.00122,a=14.19,m=0.259.Through verification,the relative error of 83.2%verification value is within 20%.At the same time,it shows that the Hargreaves-Samani model presents the accuracy distribution law of'summer>spring>autumn>winter'when predicting the reference crop evapotranspiration,which can provide practical theoretical basis for irrigation forecasting and intelligent water conservancy development in irrigation areas.

关 键 词：泾惠渠灌区 参考作物滕发量 预报模型 Hargreaves-Samani公式 

分 类 号：S271[农业科学—农业水土工程]