基于可靠度理论的岩质滑坡稳定性及敏感性分析——以西藏旁多水利枢纽沿线滑坡为例  

Stability and Sensitivity Analysis of Rock Landslides Based on Reliability Theory——Taking the Landslide Along the Penduo Water Conservancy Hub in Tibet as an Example

作　　者：杨智翔 赵海阔[2] 黄润秋[3] 裴向军[3] YANG Zhixiang;ZHAO Hankuo;HUANG Runqiu;PEI Xiangjun(Henan Industrial Design&Research Institute Group Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 451450,China;China Water Northeast Survey,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Changchun 130021,China;Chengdu Uni-versity of Technology State Key Laboratory of Geological Disaster Prevention and Geological Environmental Protection,Chengdu 610059,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省中工设计研究院集团股份有限公司,河南郑州451450 [2]中水东北勘测设计研究有限责任公司,吉林长春130021 [3]成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059

出　　处：《河南科技》2024年第15期37-41,共5页Henan Science and Technology

基　　金：西藏“十三五”规划水利重点工程项目(34113632)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究西藏高海拔地区岩质滑坡的主要失稳机理。【方法】以数学方程中可靠度理论为基础,根据岩质滑坡圆弧滑动稳定性极限特征,结合现场大量试验及数学概率统计,建立其可靠度判定极限状态方程。【结果】研究结果表明:公式中坡度α、坡高H、单位长度滑体的重力W、岩石的黏聚力c、岩石的内摩擦角φ等物理力学参数的均值与变异性系数、可靠度指标存在一定影响规律,并以此建立了岩质滑坡可靠度分析计算模型。【结论】通过各物理力学参数的可靠度敏感性计算分析可知,岩质滑坡的坡度敏感性最高,其次是滑坡的单位长度重力、内摩擦角和黏聚力指标;对于滑坡坡高没有表现出明显的影响规律。[Purposes]This papers aims to study the main instability mechanisms of rock landslides in high-altitude areas of Tibet.[Methods]Based on the reliability theory in the mathematical equation,ac-cording to the limit characteristics of the circular sliding stability of the rock landslide,and combined with a large number of field tests and mathematical probability statistics,the reliability determination limit state equation is established.[Findings]The research results indicate there is a certain influence law between the variability coefficient as well as reliability indicators and mean value of physical and me-chanical parameters such as slopeα,slope height H,gravity per unit length of sliding mass W,rock cohe-sion C,and internal friction angleφin the formula have certain influence rules.Based on this,a reliabil-ity analysis and calculation model for rock landslides was established.[Conclusions]By calculating the re-liability sensitivity of various physical and mechanical parameters,it can be concluded that the inclination angle sensitivity of rock landslides is the highest,followed by the unit length weight,internal friction angle,and cohesion index of landslides;there is no obvious impact pattern on the height of the landslide slope.

关 键 词：西藏地区 岩质滑坡 可靠度指标 概率统计 敏感性 

分 类 号：TV697.23[水利工程—水利水电工程]