主客观融合精细化降水预报方法及防汛业务应用  

Precipitation forecasting by subjective-objective integration and its applications in flood defense

作　　者：高唯清 王琳[1] 刘佳伟 傅承浩 黄小玉 Gao Weiqing;Wang Lin;Liu Jiawei;Fu Chenghao;Huang Xiaoyu

机构地区：[1]水利部信息中心,北京100053 [2]湖南省气象台,长沙410007 [3]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《中国水利》2024年第16期34-41,68,共9页China Water Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB3900601);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022136)。

摘　　要：基于水利部现有预报数据和资源,开展主客观融合的精细化降水预报方法研究,研制了一套技术方法。选取2022—2023年4次较强洪水过程,对主客观融合预报、主观预报、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)客观预报在9个流域的预报结果对照实况进行检验,结果表明,主客观融合预报在空间融合与时间拆分效果上优于主观预报和客观预报。Based on the existing data and resources of the Ministry of Water Resources,the studies focuses on precipitation forecast by integrating subjective and objective factors in a refined manner and develop a set of technical methods.Selecting four big floods during 2022 to 2023,the results of forecasts by subjective-objective integration,subjective forecasting,and objective forecasting of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)in nine river basins were tested against the actual situation.The results indicated that the subjective-objective integration method had better performance in spatial integration and temporal decomposition than subjective or objective forecasting.

关 键 词：主客观融合 精细化降水预报 洪水预报应用 暴雨洪水 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学] TV[水利工程—水文学及水资源]