中国劳动力市场的结构性矛盾  

Structural Problems in China’s Labor Market

作　　者：滕蔓洲 程开明[1] 章上峰[1] 刘书成 Teng Manzhou;Cheng Kaiming;Zhang Shangfeng;Liu Shucheng(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Zhejiang Gongshang University)

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计与数学学院 [2]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《调研世界》2024年第9期17-29,共13页The World of Survey and Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“中国城镇化阶段性特征统计测度及驱动效应评估研究”(20&ZD133);国家社科基金重点项目“高质量发展视阈下中国劳动力结构性错配的测算与对策研究”(22ATJ004)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于劳动力价格扭曲与错配视角,结合劳动力技能水平,测算了2007—2022年我国19个行业的劳动力错配系数。结果表明:第一产业劳动力从配置过度转为配置不足;第二产业总体上劳动力配置不足,但整体处于优化状态;第三产业则出现劳动力配置过度与配置不足并存的现象。在2022年,农、林、牧、渔业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业以及信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业处于劳动力严重不足的状态,同时水利、环境和公共设施管理业,教育、公共管理、社会保障和社会组织行业处于劳动力严重过剩的状态。同时,若消除劳动力错配现象,我国劳动力将从相对过剩转变为相对短缺,2022年劳动力潜在就业人数为8.71亿,经济潜在总产出比2022年实际总产出高5.98%。本文从一个新的视角探究了我国劳动力结构性矛盾的现状,并为缓解劳动力就业问题提供相应的决策依据与政策建议。This article calculates the labor mismatch coefficient of 19 industries in China in 2007—2022 based on the perspective of labor price distortion and mismatch,combined with labor skill level.The results indicate that the labor force in the primary industry has shifted from excessive allocation to insufficient allocation;The overall labor force allocation in the secondary industry is insufficient,but it is in an optimized state;The tertiary industry is experiencing a coexistence of excessive and insufficient labor force allocation.In 2022,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,transportation,warehousing,and postal industries,as well as information transmission,computer services,and software industries,are in a state of severe labor shortage,while water conservancy,environmental and public facility management,education,public management,and social organization industry are in a state of severe labor surplus.At the same time,if the phenomenon of labor mismatch is eliminated,China’s labor force will shift from relative surplus to relative shortage.The potential employment of labor force in 2022 is 871 million,and the potential total economic output is 5.98%higher than the actual total output in 2022.This article explores the current situation of structural problems in China’s labor force from a new perspective,and provides corresponding decision-making basis and policy recommendations to alleviate labor employment problems.

关 键 词：结构性矛盾 劳动力价格扭曲 劳动力错配 潜在总产出 就业缺口 

分 类 号：F240[经济管理—劳动经济]