中国海洋高技术产业安全格局演变及预警分析  

The Analysis of Security Pattern Evolution and Early-warning of Marine High-tech Industry in China

作　　者：王泽宇[1] 宋洹 Wang Zeyu;Song Huan(Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education,Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China;School of Geography,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋可持续发展研究院,辽宁大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学地理科学学院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第5期26-39,共14页Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)

基　　金：教育部基地重大项目“高质量发展背景下中国现代海洋产业体系:理论、机制与路径”(22JJD790030);国家自然基金项目“基于空间恢复力视角的海岸带人海系统耦合机理与调控路径”(42471209);辽宁省研究生教育教学改革研究项目“辽宁全方位振兴背景下‘需求导向’型研究生人才培养模式的探索与实践”(LNYJG2023269)。

摘　　要：基于新时期海洋高技术产业安全内涵,从“产业发展能力—产业创新能力—产业控制能力”三个维度构建海洋高技术产业安全评价指标体系,采用虚拟最劣解和灰色关联度动态评价模型测度中国沿海省份2009—2021年海洋高技术产业安全水平,分析产业安全格局演变过程,运用灰色BP神经网络模型预测2022—2035年海洋高技术产业安全指数。结果表明:(1)研究期海洋高技术产业安全水平整体较低,评价值在0.636~0.664之间波动;分维度看,海洋高技术产业控制能力下降约35.8%,产业发展能力和产业创新能力变化不大。(2)海洋高技术产业安全格局总体呈向好趋势,海南和广西从“风险”向“基本安全”转变;产业发展能力格局相对稳定;产业创新能力格局变化显著,“安全”和“基本安全”地区数量上升,“风险”地区数量降为零;产业控制能力格局呈反向变化趋势,海南、河北从“基本安全”向“风险”演变。(3)2022—2035年海洋高技术产业安全预警指数由0.678上升至0.826,警度等级下降,由“重警”变为“轻警”。Based on the connotation of marine high-tech industry security in the new era,the paper constructs marine high-tech industry security assessment index system from the three dimensions of industrial development capability,industrial innovation capability and industrial control capability.The virtual worst solution and gray correlation dynamic evaluation model is used to measure the safety level and describe the evolution process of industrial safety pattern of marine high-tech industry in coastal areas of China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2009 to 2021.The grey Back-Propagation neural network model is used to predict warning index of marine high-tech industry security from 2022 to 2035.The results show that:(1)The overall security level of marine high-tech industry in the study period is low,with the assessment value fluctuating between 0.636 and 0.664;in terms of dimensions,the control capacity of marine high-tech industry has decreased by about 35.8%,and the industrial development capacity and industrial innovation capacity have not changed much;(2)The overall security pattern of the marine high-tech industry shows a positive trend,Hainan and Guangxi vary from"risk"to"basic safety"level.The pattern of industrial development capability is relatively stable;the pattern of industrial innovation capability changes significantly,with the number of"safe"and"basic safety"regions rising,and the number of"risky"regions dropping to zero;the pattern of industrial control capability shows a reverse trend,with Hainan and Hebei shifting from"basic safety"to"risky";(3)The early warning index of marine high-tech industry security grows from 0.678 to 0.826,with the level of alert dropping from"heavy alert"to"light alert".

关 键 词：海洋高技术产业安全 预警 灰色BP神经网络 格局演变 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]