ROSE2.1产品在黔东南一次冰雹天气过程中的应用检验  

Application Verification of ROSE2.1 Products in a Hail Process in the Southeast of Guizhou Province

作　　者：毛倩 龙凌云 刘埙勋 董文韬 白慧 文建川 MAO Qian;LONG Lingyun;LIU Xunxun;DONG Wentao;BAI Hui;WEN Jianchuan(Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Office of Guizhou Province,Kaili 556000,China;Cengong Meteorological Station of Guizhou Province,Cengong 557800,China;Congjiang Meteorological Station of Guizhou Province,Congjiang 557400,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省黔东南苗族侗族自治州气象局,贵州凯里556000 [2]贵州省岑巩县气象局,贵州岑巩557800 [3]贵州省从江县气象局,贵州从江557400

出　　处：《山地气象学报》2024年第4期24-32,共9页Journal of Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：黔东南州基础研究计划项目(黔东南科合基础[2022]09号):基于区域自动站的黔东南“两山”地区致灾暴雨研究。

摘　　要：【目的】根据中国气象局部署,自2023年12月1日起,在全国所有组网业务运行的新一代天气雷达正式业务运行ROSE2.1。为检验ROSE2.1冰雹报警产品在黔东南州短临监测预警业务中的应用效果,提高本地冰雹监测预警能力。【方法】选取2023年4月18日黔东南州出现的一次冰雹天气过程,基于ROSE2.1.2版本软件,利用ROSE降水估测和报警产品评估系统,对榕江双偏振雷达和三穗单偏振雷达2部雷达ROSE2.1系统中冰雹报警产品(UAM hail)以及2部雷达组网的冰雹报警产品(NUAM hail),从命中次数、虚警次数、漏报次数、命中率、虚警率、漏报率、准确率7个方面分距离等级进行检验评估,并计算其报警提前量。【结果】(1)榕江雷达及2部雷达组网的冰雹报警产品UAM hail和NUAM hail的命中率和准确率均与距离成正比,即随距离增加而增大;三穗雷达冰雹报警产品命中率和准确率与距离成反比,即随距离增加而减小。(2)3个产品各有所长,互补短板,分距离等级50 km范围内三穗雷达表现最优,50 km以上榕江雷达表现最优;平均榕江雷达表现最优,组网的较三穗雷达有明显提升,三穗雷达无虚警率,榕江、组网有一定的虚警率。(3)ROSE2.1冰雹报警产品提前量榕江雷达平均时间提前量最高,组网的产品最低,但整体均在30 min以上,对冰雹的短临预报预警业务有很好的指示意义。【结论】在冰雹的短临监测预警业务中,当ROSE2.1冰雹报警产品持续报警时次小于2个时,可认为报警产品为虚警。According to the deployment of the China Meteorological Administration,since December 1,2023,the new generation of weather radar in all network operations nationwide has officially operated ROSE2.1.In order to evaluate the effectiveness of ROSE2.1 hail warning products in short-time forecasting,nowcasting and early warning services in Qiandongnan Prefecture of Guizhou Province and enhance the local hail forecasting and warning capabilities,we selected a hail weather process that occurred in Qiandongnan Prefecture on April 18,2023 for the research.In this paper,by using the ROSE2.1.2 version software,the ROSE precipitation estimation and warning product evaluation system,we test and evaluate the hail warning products(UAM hail)from the ROSE2.1 system of the Rongjiang dual polarization radar and Sansui single polarization radar,and the hail warning products(NUAM hail)of the two radar networks from seven aspects by three distance levels,i.e.,hit times,false alarm times,missed report times,hit rate,false alarm rate,missed report rate,and accuracy rate.Besides,all the alarm advance is calculated.The results are as follows:(1)The hit rate and accuracy of the hail warning products from the Rongjiang radar and the two radar networks are directly proportional to the distance,that is,they increase with the increase of distance.The hit rate and accuracy of the hail warning product from the Sansui radar are inversely proportional to the distance,that is,they decrease with the increase of distance.(2)The three products have their own strengths and can complement each other's weaknesses.From the perspective of distance,the Sansui radar product performs the best within 50 km,while the Rongjiang radar product is the best in the distance above 50 km.On average,the Rongjiang radar product performs the best,and the performance of networked product is significantly improved compared to that of the Sansui radar.The Sansui radar product has no false alarm rate,while there is a certain false alarm rate in the Rongjiang radar and network

关 键 词：ROSE2.1 冰雹报警产品 组网 检验评估 

分 类 号：P458.121.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]