基于不同场景下的交通量预测模型参数取值研究  

Parameter Selection Recommendations for Traffic Volume Prediction Models Based on Different Scenarios

作　　者：王文娜 WANG Wenna(CCCC Highway Consultants Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100010,China)

机构地区：[1]中交公路规划设计院有限公司,北京100010

出　　处：《综合运输》2024年第8期78-80,149,共4页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：交通量预测是交通需求计算和项目投资评估的重要依据。交通量预测过程中各阶段参数的取值直接影响预测结果的准确性,在进行交通量预测时,多数情况下只考虑弹性系数、诱增率、转移率关键参数的取值,从而忽略了预测模型中微观参数取值问题。本文以交通量预测常用模型为基础,从我国经济发展水平出发,结合数据分析及现有文献研究,提出不同场景下预测模型中微观参数的标定方法及取值范围建议,为交通量预测过程中参数取值提供有力支撑,对提高预测结果的准确性及公路建设项目投资效益都具有重要意义。Traffic volume prediction is an important basis for calculating traffic demand and evaluating project investment.The values of parameters in each stage of traffic volume prediction directly affect the accuracy of the prediction results.In most cases,only the values of key parameters such as elasticity coefficient,induction rate,and transfer rate are considered in traffic volume prediction,thus ignoring the issue of micro parameter values in the prediction model This article is based on commonly used models for traffic volume prediction,starting from the level of economic development in China,combined with data analysis and existing literature research,proposing calibration methods and range suggestions for micro parameters in prediction models under different scenarios,providing strong support for parameter values in the process of traffic volume prediction,and having important significance for improving the accuracy of prediction results and investment benefits of highway construction projects.

关 键 词：交通量预测 微观参数 重力模型 阻抗函数 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]