基于MK检验和小波谱分析的赣江上游旱涝变化特征研究  

Characteristics of Drought and Flood Changes in the Upper Reaches ofGanjiang River Based on MK Test and Wavelet Spectrum Analysis

作　　者：许珊 万智巍 张智 张安皓 吴亮清 李秀娟 Xu Shan;Wan Zhiwei;Zhang Zhi;Zhang Anhao;Wu Liangqing;Li Xiujuan(School of Geography and Environmental Engineering,Gannan Normal University JiangxiGanzhou 341000;School of Ecology and Environment,Yuzhang Normal University JiangxiNanchang 330103)

机构地区：[1]赣南师范大学地理与环境工程学院,江西赣州341000 [2]豫章师范学院生态与环境学院,江西南昌330103

出　　处：《科技风》2024年第27期81-83,共3页

基　　金：江西省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目(JC21113)资助。

摘　　要：近年来在全球碳排放转型的大背景下,气候变化成为相关学者研究的热点问题。其中全球变暖带来的区域降水变率的不稳定性对社会可持续发展产生了重要影响。因此,为研究长时间尺度下的赣江上游地区环境变化规律,在相关气候要素中,选择旱涝变化作为衡量指标,利用MK检验和小波谱分析方法对近五百年旱涝变化趋势以及周期性特征进行研究。结果表明,赣江上游地区明清以来的近五百年旱涝变化趋势较为明显,总体上涝灾处于增加态势;通过小波谱分析得出,赣江上游地区旱涝演变具有一定的周期性,尤其是不同尺度下的演变周期具有异质性。本研究可以为区域可持续发展研究提供长时间尺度的气候演变规律历史相似型,并为旱涝灾害研究提供基础数据。In recent years,in the context of global carbon emissions transformation,climate change has become a hot topic of research for relevant scholars.The instability of regional precipitation variability caused by global warming has had a significant impact on sustainable social development.Therefore,in order to study the environmental changes in the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River over a long time scale,drought and flood changes were selected as measurement indicators among relevant climate factors,and the trend and periodic characteristics of drought and flood changes in the past 500 years were studied using MK test and wavelet spectrum analysis methods.The results show that the trend of drought and flood changes in the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River in the past 500 years since the Ming and Qing dynasties is relatively obvious,and overall,waterlogging disasters are increasing;Through wavelet analysis,it can be concluded that the evolution of drought and flood in the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River has a certain periodicity,especially the heterogeneity of the evolution cycles at different scales.This study can provide long-term historical similarity patterns of climate evolution patterns for regional sustainable development research,and provide basic data for drought and flood disaster research.

关 键 词：赣江上游地区 MK检验 小波谱分析 旱涝灾害 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]