纾解竞争性官僚体系弊病——美国净评估情报分析机制的创立及其影响  

Alleviate Competitive Bureaucracy:The Creation and Impact of the U.S.Net Assessment Intelligence Analysis Regime

作　　者：曹国涛 忻怿 Cao Guotao;Xin Yi(School of History,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210033;School of History and Civilization,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119)

机构地区：[1]南京大学历史学院,南京210033 [2]陕西师范大学历史文化学院,西安710119

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第9期32-39,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“美国对华安全战略研究(1969—2001)”(编号:21CSS002);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“黑海通史研究”(编号:22JDZ037)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]作为新型战略情报获取及综合评估机制,美国净评估情报分析机制显著增强美国国家安全战略及情报产品的竞争性特质,成为美国冷战致胜的智力保障。理解该机制创设的背景、对传统情报分析模式的超越及其冷战历史影响,具有学术价值和现实参考。[研究方法]基于官僚政治学、组织行为学框架,解读解密档案及当事人著述,论析净评估机制出炉及其特质效能。[研究结论]净评估在组织层面获得顶层便利、专注长时段和战略性分析并避免镜像化理解对手,重视激发中长期对敌比较优势,得以解决传统情报分析之弊。净评估机制妥善协调了短期情报活动与长期战略评估,是美国赢取对苏长期战略竞争的关键智力创新。[Research purpose]As a new type of strategic intelligence acquisition and comprehensive assessment mechanism,the net assessment has significantly enhanced the competitiveness of U.S.national security strategy and intelligence products,and has become the intellectual guarantee for U.S.victory in the Cold War.It is of great academic value and practical significance to understand the background of the creation of this mechanism,its transcendence of the traditional mode of intelligence analysis,and its historical impact on the Cold War.[Research method]Based on the framework of bureaucratic politics and organizational behavior,this paper interprets the declassified archives and the writings of the people involved,and discusses the emergence of the net assessment mechanism and its characteristics.[Research conclusion]Net assessment solves the pitfalls of traditional intelligence analysis by providing top-level access at the organizational level,focusing on long-term and strategic analysis and avoiding a mirrored understanding of the adversary,and emphasizing stimulating medium-and long-term comparative advantages over the enemy.The net assessment mechanism,which properly coordinates short-term intelligence activities with long-term strategic assessments,is a key intellectual innovation for the United States to win the long-term strategic competition with the Soviet Union.

关 键 词：情报分析 情报分析机制 净评估 净评估机制 竞争性官僚体系 詹姆斯·施莱辛格 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学]