2024年上半年经济形势分析与下半年展望  

Analysis of the Economic Situation in the First Half of 2024 and Outlook for the Second Half of the Year

作　　者：许宪春 唐雅 常子豪 王洋[4] Xu Xianchun;Tang Ya;Chang Zihao;Wang Yang(China Finance 40 Forum,Beijing 100080,China;School of Government,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210033,China;Department of Public Finance Audit,National Audit Office of the People’s Republic of China,Beijing 100073,China;Digital Economy Laboratory,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国金融四十人论坛,北京100080 [2]南京大学政府管理学院,江苏南京210033 [3]中华人民共和国审计署财政审计司,北京100073 [4]对外经济贸易大学数字经济实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《上海经济》2024年第4期1-14,共14页Shanghai Economy

摘　　要：2024年上半年经济实现5.0%的增长,在复杂的外部环境与国内结构持续深化调整等各类挑战下,经济运行整体稳定。本文基于生产、需求、收入和价格分析框架,运用统计指标和统计数据,对上半年经济运行情况进行了分析,总结出上半年经济运行的主要特点:就生产端而言,第二产业保持较快增长,对经济增长的贡献明显回升;第三产业增速放缓,现代服务业保持快速增长。就需求端而言,消费需求对经济增长起主要拉动作用;投资需求拉动作用有所提升;净出口需求继续对经济增长做出贡献,货物出口结构继续优化。就收入端而言,居民收入保持平稳增长,增速有所回落;企业利润保持平稳增长。就价格端而言,消费领域价格涨幅较低,生产领域价格降幅持续收窄。本文还分析了2024年下半年经济增长面临的挑战和支撑点,对下半年经济发展情况进行展望,并提出下半年政策着力点。The economy achieved 5.0%growth in the first half of 2024,and the overall economic operation was stable under various challenges such as the complex external environment and the continuous deepening of domestic structural adjustment.Based on the analytical framework of production,demand,income and price,this paper analyzes the economic operation in the first half of the year by using statistical indicators and statistics,and summarizes the main features of the economic operation in the first half of the year:on the production side,the secondary industry maintains a relatively fast growth,and its contribution to the economic growth rebounds significantly;the growth rate of the tertiary industry slows down,but the modern service industry has maintained rapid growth.On the demand side,consumer demand played a major pulling role in economic growth;the pulling role of investment demand improved;net export demand continued to contribute to economic growth,and the structure of exports of goods continued to be optimized.On the income side,residents'income maintained steady growth,with the growth rate falling;corporate profits maintained steady growth.On the price side,prices in the consumer sector rose at a lower rate,and the rate of price decline in the production sector continued to narrow.This paper also analyzes the challenges and support points for economic growth in the second half of the year,looks forward to the economic development in the second half of the year,and puts forward policy focus points for the second half of the year.

关 键 词：经济运行特点 挑战 支撑点 经济展望 

分 类 号：F027[经济管理—政治经济学] F129.9