集合预报降雨信息在寸滩-三峡区间的精度评价和可利用性评估  

Accuracy evaluation and availability of ensemble forecast rainfall information in Cuntan-Three Gorges interval

作　　者：杨兴豪 刘晓阳 赵丽平 任明磊[2,3] YANG Xinghao;LIU Xiaoyang;ZHAO Liping;REN Minglei(China Three Gorges Cor poration,Yichang 443133,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydroporwer Research,Beijing 100038,China;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disa ster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China;Chongqing Jiaotong Unirersity,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北宜昌443133 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [3]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心(水旱灾害防御中心),北京100038 [4]重庆交通大学,重庆400074

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2024年第S01期17-22,40,共7页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3006400,2022YFC3006403);中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目资助项目(合同编号:0704203);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022076);三峡后续工作项目(CQS23C00399,CQS23C00400)。

摘　　要：降雨数值预报在预防极端天气和其他气象事件方面具有重要作用。通过提供可靠的概率预报,可以更准确地描述预报结果的不确定性,为决策者提供科学依据,从而提高应用价值和经济价值。以寸滩-三峡区间为研究对象,根据TIGGE资料中的ECMWF和NCEP 2种模式,对2020-2022年(5-10月)逐日降水集合预报信息的精度进行评估。首先,采用Talagrand分布和Brier评分来评估不同预见期的集合预报能力;然后,采用贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)来修正集合预报;最后,对不同预见期的BMA修正值和实际降雨值之间的误差进行分析。结果显示:ECMWF和NCEP 2种模式的预报能力随预见期的增加逐渐下降,在不同预见期下,通过BMA修正后的降雨预报值具有更高的精度。Rainfall numerical forecast plays an important role in the prevent ion of extreme weather and other meteorological events.By providing reliable probabilty forecast,the uncertainty of forecast results can be described more accurately,which can provide scientific basis for decision makers,so as to improve the application value and economic value.Taking the Cuntan-Three Gorges region as the research object,the accuracy of daily precipitation ensemble forecast information from 2020 to 2022(May to October)was evaluated according to the ECMWF and NCEP models in TIGGE data.Firstly,the Talagrand distribution and Brier score are used to evaluate the ensemble forecast ability of different forecast periods.Then Bayesian model averaging(BMA)is used to correct the ensemble forecast.Finally,the error betwqen the BMA correction value and the actual rainfall value in different forecast periods is analyzed.The results show that the forecast ability of ECMWF and NCEP models gradual ly decreases with the increase of forecast period.Under different forecast periods,the rainfall forecast value corrected by BMA has higher accuracy.

关 键 词：集合预报 贝叶斯模型平均(BMA) 降雨 预见期 精度评价 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]