财政纵向失衡对创新驱动政策有效性的影响——基于国家创新型省份建设的准自然实验  

The Impact of Industry Growth and Interindustry Linkages on China’s Economic Growth

作　　者：廖直东 WU Mao-hua;WANG Di-hai(Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023;Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学财政税务学院,广东广州510320

出　　处：《当代财经》2024年第9期28-42,共15页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“地方财政压力对区域创新体系效能的影响研究”(GD23XYJ10)。

摘　　要：创新驱动发展是支撑我国产业迈向中高端水平、经济实现高质量发展的关键和基础。基于国家创新型省份建设的准自然实验,采用2001—2019年省级面板数据,从创新数量和创新质量的双重视角考察了财政纵向失衡对创新驱动政策有效性的影响。研究表明:国家创新型省份建设存在创新数量效应和创新质量效应,财政纵向失衡会显著地抑制国家创新型省份建设的创新质量效应,但并不影响其创新数量效应。从创新投入的视角分析发现,国家创新型省份建设对创新人力资本投入和创新资金投入都有积极影响,但财政纵向失衡抑制了国家创新型省份建设的积极作用,引致财政纵向失衡对国家创新型省份建设政策有效性的影响在创新数量和创新质量之间产生分异。因此,为提升创新驱动政策有效性,我国应进一步完善财税体制,适度降低财政纵向失衡;优化地方财政支出结构,保障财政科技投入;总结国家创新型省份建设经验,纵深推进国家创新型省份建设。Regarding the impact of changes in industrial structure on the growth rate of real GDP,previous studies have often overlooked the role of inter-industry linkages.Industrial growth not only directly affects economic growth,but may also indirectly affect economic growth by influencing other industries.Empirical studies have shown that the growth of industrial real output value can promote the growth of service industry output value,but reduce the growth of agricultural output value;the growth of actual output value in the service industry will suppress the growth of industrial output value and reduce the relative price growth rate of the service industry;the growth of actual agricultural output value will reduce the relative price growth of the service industry.Taking into account the correlation between industries,the decomposition results of the economic growth rate show that the net effect of China’s industrial output value growth driving China’s economic growth from 1979 to 2022 is 5.72%,of which the indirect effect of affecting the growth of other industries’output value and changes in price structure is 1.2%.The net effect of the growth of service industry output value driving economic growth is 2.49%,of which the indirect effect is-1.18%.Further research shows that the net effect of industrial growth can explain 78%of the differences in actual output growth rates between provincial regions in China.From 1979 to 2022,China’s economic growth was mainly driven by industrial growth(contributing 64.1%),which is higher than the direct effect without considering industrial linkages(contributing 50.68%).In addition,the indirect effects of service industry growth have had a significant hindering effect on economic growth.

关 键 词：财政纵向失衡 创新驱动政策 国家创新型省份建设 创新数量 创新质量 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]