灰色GM(1,1)预测模型在单病种运营管理中的应用——以胃癌为例  

Application of Grey GM(1,1)Prediction Model in Single-Disease Operation Management--A Case Study of Gastric Cancer

作　　者：袁筱祺 高玮 董笑 YUAN Xiaoqi;GAO Wei;DONG Xiao(Medical Department,Shanghai First People’s Hospital,Shanghai 200080,China;Department of Oncology,Shanghai First People’s Hospital,Shanghai 200080,China;Shanghai Eye Disease Prevention Center,Shanghai 200040,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市第一人民医院医务处,上海200080 [2]上海市第一人民医院肿瘤科,上海200080 [3]上海市眼病防治中心,上海200040

出　　处：《中国医疗设备》2024年第9期76-81,87,共7页China Medical Devices

基　　金：国家自然科学青年科学基金(82203742);上海交通大学中国医院发展研究院局级课题(CHDI-2019-B-14)。

摘　　要：目的通过对胃癌的发病例数、均次费用、平均住院日、药占比、材占比的医疗指标数据构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,分析医疗业务方面的变化趋势,以期为单病种管理提供方法学依据。方法选取我院2013—2018年胃癌的发病例数、均次费用、平均住院日、药占比、材占比等数据构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型。使用后验差比C值和小误差概率P值对模型的准确度进行评估,利用相对误差和级别偏差评估模型的拟合效果。通过2020—2023年的数据验证灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测效果,根据调整后的模型对2024—2025年的医疗业务指标进行预测。结果本研究构建的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对均次费用、平均住院日、药占比指标预测效果较好;根据该模型预测到2025年,胃癌的均次费用、平均住院日、药占比分别可达到71285.56元、14.22 d、13.09%。结论灰色GM(1,1)预测模型能够较好拟合胃癌的均次费用、平均住院日、药占比指标变化趋势。模型预测显示均次费用呈现逐年增加趋势,平均住院日和药占比均呈现逐年递减趋势。该模型可为医院单病种医疗质量监测、提升医疗运行效率提供理论依据。Objective To construct a grey GM(1,1)prediction model based on medical index data such as the incidence cases number,average cost,average hospitalization day,drug cost ratio,and material cost ratio for gastric cancer,to analyze the trend of changes in medical business,aiming to provide methodological basis for single-disease management.Methods The grey GM(1,1)prediction model was constructed by using the data of incidence cases number,average cost,average hospitalization day,drug and material cost ratio for gastric cancer in our hospital from 2013 to 2018.Posterior difference ratio C value and small error probability P value were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model,and relative error and rank deviation were used to evaluate the fitting effect of the model.The prediction effect of the grey GM(1,1)model was verified through the data from 2020-2023,and the medical business indicators for 2024-2025 were predicted based on the adjusted model.Results The grey GM(1,1)prediction model constructed in this study performed well in predicting the average cost,average hospitalization day and drug cost ratio.According to this model,it is predicted that by 2025,the average cost,average hospitalization day and drug cost ratio for gastric cancer can be at 71285.56 yuan,14.22 d and 13.09%,respectively.Conclusion The grey GM(1,1)model can fit well with the changing trends of the average cost,average hospitalization day,and drug cost ratio for gastric cancer.The model predicts that the average cost shows an increasing trend year by year,while the average hospitalization day and the drug cost ratio both show a decreasing trend annually.This model can provide a theoretical basis for medical quality monitoring of single-disease and improving medical operational efficiency.

关 键 词：灰色GM(1 1) 预测模型 胃癌 单病种管理 运营指标 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]