俄乌冲突以来的欧洲经济:表现、原因、政策应对与前景  

The European Economy since the Russia-Ukraine Conflict:Performance,Causes,Policy Responses and Prospects

作　　者：丁纯[1,2] 孙露 纪昊楠 DING Chun;SUN Lu;JI Haonan(Centre for European Studies,Fudan University,Shanghai200433,China;Institute of World Economy,Fudan University,Shanghai200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学欧洲问题研究中心 [2]复旦大学世界经济研究所

出　　处：《同济大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期24-35,共12页Journal of Tongji University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大研究专项项目(20VGQ012);深圳市人文社科重点研究基地深圳技术大学德国工业文明研究中心项目。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突以来,由冲突引发的能源危机使欧洲经济遭受极大冲击。欧盟经济陷入衰退:通胀高企,进出口萎缩,政府赤字问题突出,成员国经济表现普遍疲软,尤其是德国经济问题突出。俄乌冲突下的欧洲经济,呈现出衰退、停滞、缓慢复苏的阶段性和一定程度上分化的特点,这与欧盟对俄罗斯的能源依赖、贸易联系等结构性成因以及新冠疫情余波、冲突自身的特殊性等临时性因素有关。为应对俄乌冲突,欧洲中央银行实行多轮加息,欧盟及其成员国实施了寻求能源替代、保障民生的短期措施,这基本上摆脱了对俄罗斯能源的依赖,一定程度上展现出欧盟经济的韧性。除此之外,欧盟还出台了加速能源转型、强化经济安全等长期措施,取得了一定成效。未来,欧盟经济或将缓慢复苏,但其同时面临严峻的地缘政治风险;欧盟及成员国的短期政策应对需权衡保留与退出,长期政策将面对多重挑战。俄乌冲突持续下欧盟经济的前景仍然充满不确定性,“危”与“机”并存。The European economy has been greatly impacted by the Russia-Ukranie conflict and the consequential energy crisis. The EU economy has fallen into recession, with high inflation, shrinking imports and exports, prominent government deficits, weak economic performance in member states, and notable economic problems in Germany. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the European economy showed periodical characteristics of recession, stagnation and slow recovery, and a certain degree of differentiation, which was related to structural causes such as the EU's energy dependence on Russia and trade links, as well as temporary factors like the aftermath of the pandemic and the particularity of this conflict. In response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the European Central Bank has cut interest rates for several rounds, the EU and its member states have implemented short-term measures to seek energy alternatives and ensure people's livelihood, and the EU has also introduced long-term measures to accelerate energy transformation and strengthen economic security. These efforts have achieved certain results, demonstrating the resilience of the EU economy to some extent. Looking into the future, the EU economy is likely to recover slowly with serious geopolitical risks. The short-term policy response of the EU and its member states will need to balance retention and withdrawal, and long-term policy will face multiple challenges. The prospect of the EU economy remains uncertain under the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with both risk and opportunity coexisting.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 欧洲经济 绿色转型 经济安全 

分 类 号：F112.2[经济管理—国际贸易]