健康风险下居民人身保险最优配置方案研究  

Optimal Personal Insurance Purchase Strategy under Health Shocks

作　　者：廖朴[1] 杨弘琦 黄新宇 Liao Pu;Yang Hongqi;Huang Xinyu(China Institute for Actuarial Science/School of Insurance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102206,China;Deloitte Consulting(Shanghai)Co.,Ltd.Shenzhen Branch,Shenzhen 518022,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学保险学院/中国精算研究院,北京102206 [2]德勤管理咨询(上海)有限公司深圳分公司,广东深圳518022

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第8期61-73,共13页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(12071498);北京社会科学基金项目(19YJC043);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金;“保险风险分析与决策”学科创新引智基地项目(B17050)。

摘　　要：购买保险是居民应对风险的主要措施。随着老龄化时代的到来,人们越来越重视健康风险,并关注健康风险下的保险配置方案。本文将健康风险引入生命周期决策模型,结合市场实际将人寿保险、重疾保险、年金保险作为可选保险产品,基于居民期望终身效用最大化原则,使用数值方法求解了健康风险下居民的最优消费储蓄决策与人身保险配置方案。结果显示:第一,最优决策下,保险能使居民大幅降低储蓄水平,大幅提高退休期消费水平;第二,居民在工作期的保险支出呈U型,在工作初期购买健康保险,以防范健康冲击带来的破产风险,在工作后期购买年金保险和人寿保险,分别保障退休后的生活支出和满足遗产动机。Insurance is a main measure for residents to deal with risks.With the arrival of the aging tide and the post-pandemic era,residents pay more and more attention to the aftermath of health shocks,leading to the increase of insurance demand and new requirements in terms of the purchase strategy of personal insurance.Therefore,it is worthwhile to investigate into the insurance decisions of residents against health risk,for the purpose of improving residents'quality of life and meeting people's aspiration for a better life.A life-cycle model is established to study the optimal purchase strategy of personal insurance under health shocks.Three kinds of insurance contracts are assumed to be available in the model:life insurance,pension insurance and critical illness insurance.A health risk model is constructed to profile the transition probabilities and paths of residents'health status.A stochastic income model is constructed to reflect the long-term trend of wage income,as well as the impact of health shocks and other random factors on wage income.Based on the principle of maximizing expected lifetime utility,residents'optimal consumption-saving decisions and personal purchase strategy solutions under health shocks can be achieved.Numerical methods are applied to solve the optimal consumptionsaving decision and personal insurance purchase strategy of residents under health risks.The parameters are set mainly by referring to the common assumptions in existing literature,and based on statistical data which are obtained from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),National Health Commission of China,Ministry of Civil Affairs of China,etc.Comparing the optimal consumption-saving decisions of residents with and without insurance,the results show that insurance will significantly reduce the saving level of residents and increase the consumption level after retirement.In addition,the optimal purchase strategy of personal insurance show that residents'insurance expenditure in the working period is U-shaped,i.e.residents tend to purcha

关 键 词：健康风险 保险配置 生命周期决策 

分 类 号：F840[经济管理—保险]