我国工业和制造业增加值GDP占比的国际比较:兼谈如何稳定我国工业和制造业比重  

Optimizing China's Industrial Footprint:A Comparative Analysis of Manufacturing and Industrial Value-Add in GDP

作　　者：徐朝阳[1] 赵磊[2] Xu Zhaoyang;Zhao Lei(School of International Trade and Economics,University of Business and Economics;Financial Research Institute,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]云南财经大学金融研究院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2024年第4期171-183,共13页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(项目编号:20&ZD088);对外经济贸易大学杰出青年学者资助项目(项目编号:20JQ01)。

摘　　要：文章建立一个涵盖曾经经历过中国当前发展阶段和类似当前中国发展阶段的全球主要经济体工业增加值的数据集,基于跨国数据对我国工业和制造业近年的GDP占比下滑现象进行了比较研究,发现我国当前仍然处在工业化高峰期,未来依然有潜力在较长一段时间内继续维持较高的工业和制造业增加值GDP占比。进一步研究发现,我国过去十多年,工业和制造业实际增加值的GDP占比并未明显下滑,名义值占比下滑较快的主要原因是国内总需求不足,工业和制造业部门长期产能过剩导致其相对价格过快下滑。因此,保持制造业比重基本稳定,必须从根本上解决我国长期存在的国内总需求不足问题。This insightful study establishes a comprehensive dataset chronicling the industrial value-added contributions to GDP across major economies mirroring China's current development stage.Through rigorous cross-national comparisons,it explores the recent decline in the share of China's GDP derived from its industrial and manufacturing sectors.The findings of this comprehensive study reveal a vital truth-China remains firmly entrenched in the apex of industrialization,retaining ample potential to sustain a relatively high proportion of GDP generated by industrial and manufacturing value-add over the long term.Further analysis uncovers that over the past decade,the real GDP share of these sectors has not experienced significant erosion.However,the precipitous decline in their nominal value share can be primarily attributed to China's chronic industrial overcapacity,leading to depressed relative prices amid insufficient domestic demand.This underscores the imperative for China to fundamentally address its longstanding challenge of inadequate domestic consumption.

关 键 词：制造业 工业化 “去工业化” 产业结构 国内总需求 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F49