绿色结构性货币政策、政策预期与经济绿色转型  

Green Structural Monetary Policy,Policy Expectations and Economic Green Transition

作　　者：陈国进[1] 丁赛杰 赵向琴[1] CHEN Guojin;DING Saijie;ZHAO Xiangqin(School of Economics,Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第4期1-19,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD055)的资助。

摘　　要：如何通过绿色结构性货币政策促进我国经济绿色转型,是一个尚待深入研究的重要问题。本文首先构建嵌入气候环境模块和绿色结构性货币政策的理论模型,从绿色投资和碳排放两个维度,分析绿色结构性货币政策促进经济绿色转型的理论机制;然后,进一步考察银行绿色政策预期的影响机理;最后,采用微观面板数据模型和基于混频数据的局部投影法进行实证检验。研究发现:第一,绿色结构性货币政策能够通过绿色信贷渠道显著提高绿色投资,并通过绿色投资的作用机制降低碳排放。第二,银行绿色政策预期增强会提高绿色信贷渠道的传导效率,进而强化绿色结构性货币政策提高绿色投资的效果,最终带动更多碳减排。第三,绿色金融改革创新试验区政策与绿色结构性货币政策具有协同效应,提高企业环境信息透明度可以强化绿色结构性货币政策的经济绿色转型成效。Economic green transition is a profound revolution that determines economic high-quality development,in which monetary policy plays an important role of guiding financial allocations.Green structural monetary policy with its precise and direct speciality,supports key areas for carbon reduction,and has become one of the most important macroeconomic regulation tools for the People's Bank of China to help achieve the dual carbon goals.However,China's green structural monetary policy is still in the stage that needs improvement,and divergent expectations about the policy may affect its real effectiveness.What are the real effects of green structural monetary policy on advancing economic green transition in China?What are the specific mechanisms of the influence?How do green policy expectations affect the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy?The in-depth study on the above questions has important practical significance for monetary policy to better promote economic green transition.Combining theoretical modeling and empirical testing methods,this paper systematically studies how the green structural monetary policy influences micro enterprises'green investment and macroeconomic carbon emissions.For theoretical analysis,we construct a model embedded in the climate module and green structural monetary policy,analyze the mechanisms of green structural monetary policy promoting economic green transition,and extend the model by taking into account the random distribution of policy expectations,to further investigate its effects on the transmission efficiency of green structural monetary policy.For empirical study,we use micro panel data model,local projection method based on mixed frequency data,and nonlinear local projection method to examine how the green structural monetary policy influences green investment and carbon reduction,and identify the specific transmission path.Then,we explore how the policy expectations change the effectiveness of green structural monetary policy.Finally,we conduct heterogeneous

关 键 词：绿色结构性货币政策 绿色投资 碳排放 政策预期 经济绿色转型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F124.5