银行业竞争、银行利润与居民福利  

Bank Competition,Bank Profits,and Household Welfare

作　　者：邵全权 刘宇 Shao Quanquan;Liu Yu(School of Finance,Nankai University,Tianjin 300350,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学金融学院,天津300350

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第4期20-37,共18页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：本文研究银行竞争对不同所有制银行利润和居民福利的影响。首先,基于我国银行业实际,建立银行竞争Stackelberg差分博弈模型。数值模拟发现,存贷款利率上升会提高银行业总利润和居民福利,存贷款市场竞争程度、存贷比和银行利润、居民福利之间存在非线性关系。存贷款市场竞争程度既直接影响国有银行利润和民营银行利润、存贷款市场福利(以消费者剩余度量),也会通过存贷款利率造成间接影响。其次,运用2007—2021年我国446家银行的非平衡面板数据以及2011—2018年分省面板数据进行检验发现,存贷款利率上升、市场竞争程度提高以及存贷比上升会增加银行利润,会提高居民福利,银行利润与居民福利之间存在正相关关系。本文实证部分还进行面板门槛回归和中介效应分析,基本结论不变。China's financial sector has shifted from a phase of rapid expansion to high-quality development.In the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference,General Secretary Xi Jinping highlighted the imperative to advance five major initiatives to foster the high-quality development of finance,focusing particularly on deepening the structural reforms on the supply side of the financial sector.This paper constructs a Stackelberg difference game model of banking competition,adapting to China's unique conditions.Through numerical simulations and actual data,it examines the impact of banking competition on the profitability of banks with different ownership structures and its impact on household welfare,as well as the broader implications of the profitability in the banking sector on household welfare.This study is significant both theoretically and practically.It presents a framework to analyze competition in China's banking sector and its impact on bank profitability and household welfare,and how banking profits affect household welfare.The findings aim to help policymakers improve financial development and deepen financial reforms by offering guidance for designing policies in the banking sector.The study begins by formulating a Stackelberg difference game model based on the empirical context of competition between state-owned and private banks in China,anchored in the Monti-Klein framework.Through numerical simulations,it probes the influence of banking competition on industry-wide profits and household welfare.The analysis reveals that increasing deposit and loan interest rates contribute to higher total profits within the banking industry and enhance household welfare.Market competition intensity and loan-to-deposit ratio have a nonlinear relationship to bank profitability and household welfare,which manifests distinct characteristics at various stages of the evolution of the banking industry.The competitiveness in the deposit and loan market has direct influence on the profits of state-owned and private banks,and indirect

关 键 词：银行业竞争 银行利润 居民福利 

分 类 号：F832.3[经济管理—金融学] F271