考虑蓄滞洪区的极端降水过程影响评估方法研究——以河北省“23·7”暴雨过程为例  

Research on the Impact Estimation Method for Extreme Rainfall Considering the Flood Storage and Detention Areas:Taking“23·7”Rainfall in Hebei Province as an Example

作　　者：陈笑娟 李婷[3] 魏军 徐艺芙 CHEN Xiaojuan;LI Ting;WEI Jun;XU Yifu(China Meteorological Administration Xiong’an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory,Xiong’an New Area,Hebei Province 071800;Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021;Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Environment Meteorological Center of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室,河北雄安新区071800 [2]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,石家庄050021 [3]河北省气象灾害防御和环境气象中心,石家庄050021

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2024年第4期419-429,共11页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：河北省科技厅重点研发计划项目21375410D、22375421D。

摘　　要：利用河北省1978~2020年暴雨过程,结合直接经济损失与受灾人口的损失数据,筛选出了持续日数、过程降水量、平均降水量和最大日降水量4个与损失呈极显著相关的致灾因子指标,方法更具客观性和实用性。通过对比4种赋权法构建了致灾强度指数,改良相关系数法赋予权重分别为0.188、0.312、0.208和0.292,结果更符合主观认知。采用地形和水系因子构建孕灾环境敏感度指数,评估出2023年7月29日至8月2日河北省暴雨过程(简称“23·7”极端降水过程)的危险度呈中部高、北部和东部低的特征,保定和雄安新区最高。考虑蓄滞洪区是否启用,基于距蓄滞洪区远近计算了蓄滞洪区的影响指数,评估因素较以往研究更为全面。结合承灾体暴露度及脆弱性,对“23·7”极端降水过程开展了影响评估。结果表明:“23·7”极端降水过程对邢台中部、保定中东部、石家庄中西部、廊坊中部及北部、衡水与沧州交界处的影响最重。将是否考虑蓄滞洪区影响的两种结果与实际灾情对比验证,结果显示考虑蓄滞洪区影响的评估命中率为76.93%,较不考虑蓄滞洪区影响命中率高9.41%,该方法评估过程可操作性强,结果更符合实际,适用于河北省极端降水过程影响评估,可应用于过程前的灾害影响预估,过程中的跟踪分析以及结束后的快速评估业务,提高气象服务针对性。Based on rainstorm processes and disaster data from Hebei Province during 1978–2020,critical disaster-causing factors are identified.Moreover,the continuous days of rainfall,process precipitation,and average and maximum daily precipitation are significantly correlated with direct economic loss and affected populations.This method of determining causing factors is more objective and practical.Further,a hazard intensity index is constructed by comparing four weighting methods.The weights obtained using the modified correlation coefficient method are 0.188,0.312,0.208,and 0.292,demonstrating more subjective cognition.The topographic and hydrographic factors are used to evaluate the sensitivity of the hazard-formative environment.The hazard in the central region is higher than that in the northern and eastern regions,with Baoding and Xiong’an areas showing the highest hazard levels.Based on whether to activate the flood storage and detention areas,influence classes are judged based on the distance and more comprehensive evaluation factors.By combining the exposure and vulnerability of disaster-affected bodies,an impact assessment of the“23·7”extreme rainfall is conducted.This extreme rainfall process had the highest impact on central Xingtai,central–eastern Baoding,central–western Shijiazhuang,central–northern Langfang,and the junction of Hengshui and Cangzhou.The results of two scenarios are evaluated:One wherein the flood storage area is considered and one wherein it is not considered.The accuracy of the assessment wherein the impact of the flood storage and detention areas is considered as 76.93%,which is 9.41%higher than the assessment wherein these factors are not considered.This method demonstrates strong operability,and the obtained result is more consistent with reality,making it suitable for the impact assessment of extreme rainfall processes in Hebei Province.The proposed method can be applied to impact estimation before extreme rainfall events,track analysis during the events,and perform rap

关 键 词：“23·7”极端降水 蓄滞洪区 致灾因子 危险度评估 暴露度和脆弱性 影响评估 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]