2024年汛期气候趋势预测与展望  

Climate Prediction and Outlook in China for the 2024 Flood Season

作　　者：范方兴 郑飞[1] 彭京备[1] 陈红[1] 郎咸梅[1] 张汇玮 马洁华[1] 李超凡[1] 宗海锋[1] 包庆[1] 胡帅 董啸[1] 刘永[1] 田宝强[1] 王磊[1] 穆松宁[1] 林朝晖[1] 张庆云[1] 周天军[1] FAN Fangxing;ZHENG Fei;PENG Jingbei;CHEN Hong;LANG Xianmei;ZHANG Huiwei;MA Jiehua;LI Chaofan;ZONG Haifeng;BAO Qing;HU Shuai;DONG Xiao;LIU Yong;TIAN Baoqiang;WANG Lei;MU Songning;LIN Zhaohui;ZHANG Qingyun;ZHOU Tianjun(Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2024年第4期507-518,共12页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划2017YFA0603201。

摘　　要：2024年3月,中国科学院大气物理研究所开展汛期(6~8月)全国气候趋势预测会商会。通过综合分析大气所各数值模式和统计模型的预测结果,在未来3~5个月热带中东太平洋从El Niño事件恢复至正常状态的背景下,预计2024年汛期(6~8月),东北大部分地区、华北东部、黄河下游、长江中下游、西藏大部、陕西南部、西南地区南部和东部降水正常略偏多,其中东北的北部和东部以及长江中下游地区降水偏多2~5成,可能发生局地洪涝灾害。全国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少,其中新疆北部至内蒙古西部和华南地区降水偏少2~5成,可能发生阶段性高温热浪。预计2024年夏季登陆台风数量略偏少。由于未来El Niño事件的衰减速度、热带印度洋和北大西洋海温异常的演变趋势以及西太平洋副热带高压和中高纬度环流的季节内变化等诸多因素都具有不确定性,因此此次汛期降水预测结果也存在一定的不确定性。In March 2024,the Annual Symposium on China Climate Prediction for the summer season(June–August)was held at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP),Chinese Academy of Sciences.In the background of a transition from an El Niño event to an El Niño–Southern Oscillation normal state over the next three to five months,climate anomalies in China for the 2024 summer are predicted based on the results of various numerical and statistical models developed by the IAP.During the 2024 flood season(June–August),seasonally averaged precipitation is expected to slightly exceed normal levels in the most parts of Northeast China,the eastern part of North China,the lower reaches of the Yellow River,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the most parts of Xizang,the southern part of Shaanxi Province,and the southern and eastern parts of Southwest China.In particular,rainfall may be 20%–50%higher than normal in the northern and eastern parts of Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,implying the high possibility of local flooding disasters.By contrast,other parts of China may experience drier-than-normal conditions over the coming summer.Additionally,the precipitation amount may be reduced by 20%–50%in the northern part of Xinjiang,the western part of Inner Mongolia,and the southeast coastal region of China.Furthermore,landing typhoons may occur less frequently this summer.Owing to the uncertainty in the evolution trends of sea surface temperature anomalies in tropical oceans and the limited ability to predict intraseasonal variations in the western Pacific subtropical high and mid-high latitude atmospheric circulations,the climate prediction results for the 2024 flood season are uncertain to some extent.

关 键 词：汛期气候预测 厄尔尼诺—南方涛动 西太平洋副热带高压 中高纬度环流 东亚夏季风 夏季降水异常 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]