中国玉米期货价格泡沫及其影响因素研究  

Study on foam of Chinese corn futures price and its influencing factors

作　　者：姜雨丝 JIANG Yu-si

机构地区：[1]扬州工业职业技术学院,江苏扬州225127

出　　处：《饲料研究》2024年第15期180-184,共5页Feed Research

基　　金：江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目(项目编号:2021SJA2029);扬州市科技计划项目(项目编号:YZ2022255)。

摘　　要：文章选取2020年6月1日—2023年9月1日中国玉米期货日收盘价格作为面板数据,通过SADF、GSADF与BSADF检验法分析中国玉米期货价格泡沫的存在性与持续时间,借助静态面板模型与动态面板模型实证检验中国玉米期货价格泡沫影响因素。结果显示:观察期内,中国玉米期货市场价格存在4次泡沫现象,其中2022年9月至2022年11月价格泡沫持续时间最长(68 d);2023年8月至2023年9月玉米期货价格泡沫持续时间较短(31 d)。在中国玉米期货价格泡沫的各类影响因素中,玉米临时收储政策、气候因素与中国玉米期货价格泡沫的关系呈负向相关;生猪市场价格波动、大豆价格波动以及非洲猪瘟与中国玉米期货价格泡沫的关系呈正向相关。Taking the daily closing price of Chinese corn futures from June 1,2020 to September 1,2023 as the panel data,this paper analyzes the existence and duration of Chinese corn futures price foam through the SADF,GSADF and BSADF test methods.We empirically tested the influencing factors of Chinese corn futures price foam with the static panel model and dynamic panel model.The results show that there are four foam in the price of Chinese corn futures market during the observation period,of which the price foam lasts the longest from September 2022 to November 2022(64 days),from August 2023 to September 2023,the corn futures price foam lasts for a short time(31 days).Among the various influencing factors of Chinese corn futures price foam,the relationship between temporary corn purchase and storage policy,climate factors and Chinese corn futures price foam is negatively correlated.The fluctuation of pig market price,soybean price and African swine fever are positively correlated with the foam of Chinese corn futures price.

关 键 词：中国玉米期货 价格泡沫 玉米临时收储政策 气候因素 

分 类 号：S8-9[农业科学—畜牧兽医]