东亚地区人口结构转变中独特的低生育模式及成因  

Unique Low Fertility Patterns and Their Causes of Demographic Transition in East Asian Regions

作　　者：王颖 王亚光 WANG Ying;WANG Yaguang(School of Government,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学政府管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《人口学刊》2024年第5期102-115,共14页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:人口结构转变的经济影响及其替代因素研究(18BRK002)。

摘　　要：东亚地区的各主要经济体都经历了从高生育水平到远低于更替水平的深刻转变,这使东亚地区成为世界生育“洼地”。中国在生育问题上有其自身独特的发展路径,但与东亚其他经济体一样受相同传统文化的深远影响,同样面临低生育率的挑战。因此,探索传统文化背景下东亚地区生育率的变化趋势、原因及其潜在机制,可以为理解和解决中国的低生育问题提供重要视角。论文围绕非婚生育、婚育年龄、孩次结构、生育偏好等方面分析东亚社会向超低生育水平趋同的独特生育模式,在此基础上探讨影响该地区低生育模式的直接因素,并进一步探究传统文化和社会因素影响东亚社会生育意愿的深层原因。在生育模式方面,东亚地区呈现非婚生育比例低、初婚初育年龄推迟、孩次递进比降低、终身未婚率增加、生育的男孩偏好等特点。这种独特的生育模式是其他地区普遍因素与该地区特有因素共同作用的结果。从直接原因方面剖析,“压缩现代性”刺激了东亚社会结构和家庭结构的转型,教育扩张促使女性经济地位和婚育观念发生改变,而经济不确定性和高昂的生育成本约束着婚姻和生育的选择;从深层原因方面探究,以家庭主义、集体主义和精英主义为核心的儒家价值观和社会规范不仅形塑性别角色、家庭分工、代际关系和生育偏好,影响家庭的教育理念和育儿的心理成本,也对政策干预的有效性形成制约。东亚地区持续的低生育率和独特的生育模式表明儒家文化对生育模式的影响并非单一的,随着经济、社会和文化的变迁,儒家文化对生育率的影响也在不断演变和调整,这对未来生育政策的导向提供了启示。东亚地区应重视其独特的文化制约因素,在政策制定过程中尊重并融入儒家文化价值,围绕促进家庭和谐与代际互助,推动生育政策与传统价值观变�The East Asian regions have undergone a profound transformation from high to extremely low fertility levels,becoming a global"depression"in fertility rates.China has its own developmental path regarding fertility issues but shares deep cultural influences with other East Asian regions facing common challenges of low fertility rates.Exploring the trends,reasons,and underlying mechanisms of fertility rate changes in East Asian regions within a cultural context provides a crucial perspective for understanding and addressing Chinese low fertility issues.This paper analyzes the special convergence towards ultra-low fertility levels in East Asian regions in terms of non-marital fertility,marital age at first birth,birth order progression,and fertility preferences.Based on this,it discusses the direct factors affecting the low fertility pattern and further explores the deep reasons in cultural and social factors influencing fertility intentions in East Asian societies.In terms of fertility patterns,the region exhibits characteristics such as low proportion of non-marital births,delayed age at first marriage and first birth,decreasing progression ratios in birth order,increasing rates of lifelong singlehood,and a preference for male offspring.This unique fertility pattern results from a combination of universal factors and specific regional factors.First,the paper analyzes the direct causes,where compressed modernity has stimulated transformations in social and family structures in East Asian regions,educational expansion has promoted changes in women′s economic status and marital and fertility views,and economic uncertainties along with high costs of childbearing constrain marital and fertility choices.Secondly,the paper investigates the deep reasons,where Confucian values and social norms centered around familism,collectivism,and elitism not only shape gender roles,family division of labor,intergenerational relationships,and fertility preferences,affecting family education philosophy and the psychological cost of chi

关 键 词：东亚地区 低生育水平 生育模式 生育成本 儒家思想 

分 类 号：C924.1[社会学—人口学]