隧道施工中塌方风险耦合评估方法研究  

Investigation of the coupled assessment method for tunnel construction collapse risk

作　　者：赵亮[1,2] 苏元琛 宋战平 徐甜 陈登峰 ZHAO Liang;SU Yuanchen;SONG Zhanping;XU Tian;CHEN Dengfeng(College of Information and Control Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710055,China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Space Engineering,Xi'an 710055,China;School of Building Services Science and Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学信息与控制工程学院,西安710055 [2]陕西省岩土与地下空间工程重点实验室,西安710055 [3]西安建筑科技大学建筑设备科学与工程学院,西安710055

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第9期3297-3306,共10页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：为提高隧道施工塌方风险评估准确率,考虑评估的多指标性与耦合性特点,提出了一种基于风险耦合的隧道施工塌方风险评估方法。首先,通过事故统计分析确定14个塌方风险指标,并确定各指标风险等级阈值,建立了隧道塌方风险评价指标体系;然后,使用层次分析法与K-均值算法的组合权重计算方法确定评价指标权重,采用概率密度函数确定各指标等级隶属度;最后,通过耦合度公式计算指标间的耦合度,建立隧道施工塌方风险耦合评估模型。将建立的模型应用于某输水隧道的施工塌方风险评估,评估结果与实际情况基本吻合,验证了评估方法的合理性与可行性,为隧道施工塌方风险评估提供了新思路。In order to enhance the precision of tunnel construction collapse risk assessment,this paper introduces a“risk coupling”assessment method that is founded on the multi-indicator and coupling characteristics of risk assessment.Initially,a bibliometric study utilizing the keyword“tunnel risk assessment”highlights the scarcity of research concerning the influence of risk coupling on risk assessment outcomes.Secondly,our study conducted a statistical analysis of accidents to identify 14 key risk indicators contributing to tunnel collapses.These risk indicators include factors such as the scale of fault fracture zone,angle between tunnel axis,rock mass integrity,development of joints and fissures,compressive strength of rock,uniaxial saturated strength,unsymmetrical pressure,groundwater conditions,precipitation levels,rock permeability,geological exploration accuracy,tunnel span,burial depth,excavation method,and support status.By establishing corresponding risk level thresholds,we developed a robust tunnel collapse risk evaluation system.Moreover,we employed mechanism analysis and system dynamics modeling to construct a coupling path of tunnel collapse indicators.The results of our analysis demonstrated a clear positive coupling among all the identified risk indicators and their collective impact on tunnel collapse incidents.Subsequently,we introduce a blend of the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and K-Means algorithm to determine the weights.Following this,we apply the probability density function and cumulative distribution function to quantify the degree of association of the chosen disaster-causing indicators.Lastly,the proposed coupling degree formula incorporates quantitative calculations of the coupling impact,leading to the establishment of the“risk coupling”assessment model.This model was then implemented in the assessment of construction collapse risk for a water tunnel in China.Remarkably,the assessment results aligned with the actual project records,validating the effectiveness of the proposed m

关 键 词：安全工程 隧道塌方 风险耦合 风险评估 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]