融合贝叶斯优化随机森林的机场旅客风险评估研究  

Research on airport passenger risk assessment by fusing Bayesian Optimized Random Forest

作　　者：赵振武[1] 李雪琴 贾朋霖 ZHAO Zhenwu;LI Xueqin;JIA Penglin(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Beijing Jinyu Investment Property Management Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300 [2]北京金隅投资物业管理集团有限公司,北京100000

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第9期3487-3495,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：天津市教委科研计划项目(2021SK025)。

摘　　要：为科学有效地评价旅客风险,提高旅客出行便捷性,以机场离港旅客为研究对象,借助旅客姓名记录获取评价旅客风险的相关信息,结合旅客安检信息,编制问卷进行调查。运用SPSS 22.0软件对有效问卷数据进行合理性检验,构建民航旅客风险评价指标体系;在此基础上,利用贝叶斯优化随机森林模型对旅客风险等级进行综合评价。结果表明:在影响旅客风险等级划分的8个指标中,年飞行次数和托运行李违禁品记录重要性最大,性别重要性最小;相较于多种传统的算法,贝叶斯优化随机森林的分类性能更高,准确率达到97%。研究结果对机场实施旅客分类安检具有一定的指导作用。To scientifically and effectively evaluate passenger risk and enhance the convenience of passenger travel,this study focused on airport departing passengers.Relevant information for assessing passenger risk was gathered from Passenger Name Records and was combined with passenger security information to develop a survey questionnaire.The rationality of valid questionnaire data was tested using SPSS 22.0 software,leading to the creation of a passenger risk assessment index system.Random Forest,an ensemble learning algorithm,generates decision trees from randomly selected sample sets and feature sets.This study used a probabilistic surrogate model to assess hyperparameters within the confidence interval and constructed a Bayesian Optimized Random Forest(BO-RF)to evaluate the risk level of passengers.The decision-making process of the model was explained and analyzed using Shapley additive explanations(SHAP)method.The results show that the key indicators influencing passenger risk assessment are contraband records of checked baggage,the number of annual flights,the number of passengers per Passenger Name Record(PNR),travel date,date of birth,cabin class,quantity of checked baggage,and gender.For assessing low-risk passengers,the number of annual flights is found to be the most critical,followed by contraband records of checked baggage and the number of passengers per PNR.For assessing medium and high-risk passengers,contraband records of checked baggage are the most important,followed by the number of annual flights and the number of passengers per PNR.There is a negative correlation between the number of annual flights and low-risk predictions and a positive correlation between the number of annual flights and medium-risk predictions.Contraband records of checked baggage are positively correlated with low and medium-risk predictions.Compared with many other traditional algorithms,the performance of the Bayesian-optimized random forest is better.The accuracy rate reaches 97%and the consistency K-value is 0.9677.These

关 键 词：安全社会工程 旅客风险 贝叶斯优化随机森林(BO-RF) 风险等级 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]