抽水蓄能电站溃坝风险分析及溃坝过程模拟——以若羌抽水蓄能电站为例  

Dam-Break Risk Analysis and Process Simulation of Pumped Storage Power Station-Take Ruoqiang Pumped Storage Power Station as an Example

作　　者：程龙 张璇 闫军波 刘娜[1] 王盼 CHENG Long;ZHANG Xuan;YAN Junbo;LIU Na;WANG Pan(Power China Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi'an 710065,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,陕西省西安市7100654

出　　处：《水电与抽水蓄能》2024年第4期47-58,共12页Hydropower and Pumped Storage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金黄河自然科学基金黄河水科学研究联合基金项目“黄河上游水资源演变对水光风储多能互补影响”(U2243232);水电水利规划设计总院科技项目“可再生能源参与电力市场竞价模式研究”(ZX-KJGH-20220003)。

摘　　要：针对抽水蓄能电站的溃坝洪水风险分析及溃坝模拟相关研究及方法较少的问题,文章以新疆若羌抽水蓄能电站为例,采用FMECA法、事件树等方法对溃坝概率及风险进行了分析,并采用MIKE软件,对溃坝洪水进行了模拟。结果表明,导致该工程上、下水库溃坝的主要风险因素为发震断层地表破裂、超强地震;上、下水库大坝溃坝风险等级为Ⅳ级低风险。文章提出了若羌抽水蓄能电站溃坝的潜在破坏路径,并设置了9种溃坝方案,分别对上、下水库溃坝洪水进行了模拟分析。根据若羌抽水蓄能电站双库开挖、库盆下游无明显河道的特点,提出适合于类似工程的溃坝风险分析及溃坝过程模拟方法,为同类型抽水蓄能电站溃坝洪水分析提供参考,为提高电站应对溃坝事件的能力、编制科学的大坝应急管理预案和风险应对措施提供技术支撑。In response to the lack of research and methods related to the risk analysis and dam-break simulation in pumped storage power stations,this article takes the Ruoqiang pumped storage power station in Xinjiang as an example,uses FMECA method,event tree method to analyze the probability and risk of dambreak,and uses MIKE model to simulate dam break floods.The results indicate that the main risk factors leading to dam-break of the upper and lower reservoirs in this project are surface rupture of the seismic fault and super strong earthquakes;The risk level of dam-break for the upper and lower reservoirs isⅣlow risk.This paper proposes potential damage paths for the dambreak of the Ruoqiang pumped storage power station and sets up 9 dam-break schemes to simulate and analyze the dambreak floods of the upper and lower reservoirs.Based on the characteristics of double reservoir excavation and no obvious river channel downstream of the reservoir basin in the Ruoqiang pumped storage power station,a dam failure risk analysis and dam-break process simulation method suitable for similar projects is proposed,providing reference for the analysis of dam-break floods in similar pumped storage power stations,and providing technical support for improving the ability of power stations to cope with dam break events,developing scientific dam emergency management plans and risk response measures.

关 键 词：抽水蓄能电站 溃坝风险 溃坝概率 FMECA法 事件树 

分 类 号：TV122.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]