滨州市高温灾害风险评估与区划  

Risk assessment and regionalization of high temperature hazard in Binzhou City

作　　者：韩亚静 刘慧 任建成 卢晓宁[3] HAN Yajing;LIU Hui;REN Jiancheng;LU Xiaoning(Shandong Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Jinan 250031,China;Binzhou Meteorological Bureau,Binzhou 256612,China;College of Resources and Environment,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东济南250031 [2]滨州市气象局,山东滨州256612 [3]成都信息工程大学资源环境学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《山东理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第6期19-26,共8页Journal of Shandong University of Technology:Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：利用滨州市7个国家气象站1978—2020年逐日气温资料,以高温过程平均最高气温、高温过程持续时间、极端最高气温、高温日数作为高温致灾因子,通过对高温致灾因子、承灾体暴露度、承灾体脆弱性进行综合分析,采用加权综合评价法评估了高温灾害致灾危险性水平。以自然断点法划分高温灾害致灾危险性和高温灾害风险等级,综合考虑自然、社会、GDP等方面因素,运用ArcGIS空间分析技术,对滨州市高温灾害进行分析评估,绘制滨州市高温灾害的风险区划图,为滨州市科学防范高温灾害提供理论依据。结果表明:(1)滨州市高温指标大致呈自南向北逐渐递减的趋势,南部地区高温危险性强度以较高和高为主,中北部地区高温危险性强度以较低和低为主。(2)滨州市GDP高温灾害风险以中风险以下为主,较高和高风险地区主要分布在南部地区;滨州市人口高温灾害风险南部以中高风险为主,北部以中低风险为主;滨州市高温灾害农业风险以中级以下为主,高风险地区主要分布在南部的部分地区。(3)滨州市南部地区高温危险性相对较高,高温灾害以中风险以下为主,高温危险性和风险大致上均由南向北递减。Based on the daily temperature data of 7 national meteorological stations in Binzhou from 1978 to 2020,and using the average maximum temperature,the duration of the high temperature process,the extreme maximum temperature and the number of high temperature days as the high temperature hazard factors,this study employed the weighted comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the risk level of high temperature disasters through comprehensive analysis of the high temperature hazard factors,the exposure degree of the disaster bearing body and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body.The natural breakpoint method was used to classify the danger and risk level of high temperature disasters.On the basis of comprehensive consideration of natural,social and GDP factors,the high temperature disasters in Binzhou City were analyzed and evaluated,and the risk regionalization of high temperature disasters were drawn with ArcGIS spatial analysis technology.This provides theoretical basis for scientific prevention of high temperature disaster in Binzhou City.The results showed that:(1)the high temperature index of Binzhou City roughly decreased gradually from south to north.The high temperature risk intensity in the southern region was relatively high and high,while it was relatively low and low in the central and northern region.(2)The GDP risk of high temperature disaster in Binzhou was mainly below the medium-high risk,and areas of relatively high and high risks were mainly distributed in the southern region;The population risk of high temperature disaster in Binzhou was mainly high risk in the south and low risk in the north.In Binzhou City,the agricultural risk of high temperature disaster was mainly below the intermediate level,and the high-risk areas were mainly distributed in part of the southern region.(3)The high temperature risk in the southern part of Binzhou City was relatively high with a moderate risk,and the high temperature risk and danger was decreasing from south to north.

关 键 词：滨州市 高温灾害 ARCGIS 风险区划 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]