中国畜牧业时空发展的基本特征及趋势预测  

Basic Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Spatio-temporal Development of China's Animal Husbandry Industry

作　　者：周菁怡 李军[1] Zhou Jingyi;Li Jun(China Agricultural University,Beijing,100083)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学,北京100083

出　　处：《中国畜禽种业》2024年第8期86-99,共14页The Chinese Livestock and Poultry Breeding

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系资助(CARS-38)。

摘　　要：改革开放以来,中国畜牧业总产值不断提升,先后经历了产量扩充、结构调整、持续健康发展以及高质量发展阶段,逐步实现了数量和质量的双重飞跃,规模化、标准化、产业化、区域化加快推进。该文从政策、产值、机械化水平及养殖结构等角度切入,从时间和空间两个维度深入分析了全国和区域性畜牧业发展的变化特点,并对2023-2027年全国及各区域的畜牧业产值走势进行了预测。研究表明,预计2023-2027年全国畜牧业产值将保持6.63%的年均复合增长率,2027年将达到3.87亿元。其中,西北地区的年均增长率预计超过10%,其余地区的年均增长率均保持在6%上下。基于此,该文建议,为高质量建设畜牧业,应注重优化资源配置水平,兼顾可持续绿色发展,提高畜牧业智慧化支撑程度,加大政策支持力度,打造良好的畜牧业发展环境。Since the reform and opening up,the total output value of China's livestock husbandry has continued to improve.It has gone through the stages of production expansion,structural adjustment,sustained and healthy development,and high-quality development.It’s gradually realizing a double leap in quantity and quality,and accelerating the advancement of large-scale,standardization,industrialization,regionalization and mechanization level.Using a number of indicators such as policy,production value,mechanization level and farming structure etc,this paper analyzes in-depth the changing characteristics of the national and regional animal husbandry development from both time and space dimensions.Based on this,we predict the trend of the national and regional livestock husbandry production value from 2023 to 2027.The study shows that in the future,the output value of the national livestock husbandry will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 6.63%from 2023 to 2027,and is expected to reach a scale of 387 million yuan by 2027.Among them,the average annual growth rate of the Northwest region is expected to exceed 10%,and the average annual growth rate of the rest of the region is expected to stay above and below 6%.Based on this,this paper suggests that in order to build the livestock industry with high quality,we should focus on optimizing the level of resource allocation,balancing sustainable and green development,improving the level of intelligent support for animal husbandry,increasing policy support.

关 键 词：畜牧业 转型升级 时空演变 灰色预测 产值比重 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]