实体企业脱实向虚与分析师盈余预测质量——雾里看花还是甄别有道?  

Enterprises Turning from Real to Virtual and Accuracy of Analysts Earnings Forecast:Looking at Flowers in the Fog or Identifying Reasonably?

作　　者：李庆德[1] 魏卉[1] 康燕芳 LI Qingde;WEI Hui;KANG Yanfang(School of Economics and Management,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《审计与经济研究》2024年第5期57-68,共12页Journal of Audit & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71862029)。

摘　　要：当前,实体经济“脱实向虚”倾向较为明显,立足于监管部门日益重视分析师研报质量的现实背景,选取2007—2019年间我国非金融企业作为研究样本,探究实体企业脱实向虚是否以及如何影响分析师盈余预测质量。研究表明:实体企业脱实向虚显著降低了分析师盈余预测质量;机制检验发现,企业脱实向虚通过降低企业信息透明度进而降低了分析师盈余预测质量;进一步研究表明,良好的公司治理和高质量的外部独立审计能削弱企业脱实向虚对分析师盈余预测质量的负面影响,而机构投资者持股则会强化其负面效应。研究从资本市场信息中介视角丰富了企业脱实向虚的经济后果,对政府监管部门引导企业回归主业及提高资本市场的信息效率具有一定启示作用。Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission has set the tone to“put the real economy first and prevent the transition from real economy to virtual economy”.However,the trend of“real economy to virtual economy”is relatively obvious.Based on the research background of China s real economy,this paper takes China s non-financial enterprises from 2007 to 2019 as research samples to explore the relationship between the financialization of real enterprises and the accuracy of analysts earnings forecasts.The research shows that the financialization of real enterprises significantly reduces the accuracy of analysts earnings prediction.Mechanism test shows that enterprise financialization reduces the accuracy of analysts earnings prediction by reducing the transparency of enterprise information.Further research shows that good corporate governance and high-quality external independent audit can weaken the negative impact of corporate financialization on the accuracy of analysts earnings forecast,while institutional investors shareholding will strengthen its negative effect.The research in this paper enriches the economic consequences of enterprise financialization from the perspective of capital market information intermediary,and has certain enlightenment to improve the information efficiency of capital market.

关 键 词：企业脱实向虚 分析师盈余预测质量 盈余波动性 信息透明度 经济后果 公司治理 

分 类 号：G17[文化科学] G32