中国内地农作物受灾时空格局演化及影响因素研究  

Evolution of Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Influencing Factors of Crop Disasters in the Mainland of China

作　　者：樊艳翔 黄清子 邵文忠 FAN Yanxiang;HUANG Qingzi;SHAO Wenzhong(School of Public Policy and Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710072;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871;Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学公共政策与管理学院,西安710072 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [3]云南师范大学地理学部,昆明650500

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第5期905-916,共12页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72304226);教育部人文社会科学研究基金(22YJC630039)资助。

摘　　要：为了揭示农作物受灾的规律和影响因素,综合使用核密度估计方法和Dagum基尼系数,探讨中国内地农作物受灾的时空演变特征,并采用Catboost模型和Tobit模型分析农作物受灾的影响因素。研究结果表明,中国内地地区农作物受灾水平整体上呈现带状分布特征,黄土高原区域长期以来受灾水平较高,整体而言,黄土高原以北区域农作物受灾程度强于以南区域,在黄土高原以南区域,华中平原整体上受灾水平较高;东部和西部地区的基尼系数始终高于中部和东北,但随着时间的推移,东部空间分布差异逐渐缩小,西部则有扩大趋势,西部的这种差异主要表现在西北地区受灾水平整体上高于西南;水利建设和水土流失治理是农作物受灾的主导影响因素。In order to deeply understand and reveal the relevant laws and influencing factors of crop disasters,the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of crop disasters in the mainland of China were comprehensively discussed by using kernel density estimation and Dagum Gini coefficient.On this basis,the influencing factors of crop disasters were analyzed by using Catboost model and Tobit model.The results are concluded that the overall level of crop damage in the mainland of China shows a belt-like distribution characteristics,and it can be found that the level of crop damage in the Loess Plateau region has been relatively high for a long time.On the whole,the degree of crop damage in the north of the Loess Plateau is stronger than that in the south of the Loess Plateau,while the overall crop damage level in the Central China Plain is relatively high in the south of the Loess Plateau.The Gini coefficients of the eastern and western regions are always higher than those of the central and northeast regions.With the passage of time,the spatial distribution difference in the eastern part of the country gradually decreases,but in the western region it has a tendency to expand,and the difference in the western region is mainly reflected in the fact that the overall level of crop damage in the northwest is higher than that in the southwest.Water conservancy construction and soil erosion control are the leading influencing factors of crop disasters in the mainland of China.

关 键 词：农作物受灾 时空格局 影响因素 Catboost模型 TOBIT回归模型 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计] S42[理学—数学]